2020 • The Mad Hedge Fund Trader - Insights

TDOC commentary was paywalled and it seems he likes it
i’m long for the long term. It’s the future and they’ve got a fantastic product.

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Interesting, I think Livongo had a great product and management team, but I just wasn’t as convinced by Teladoc.

Good to get others views, I’m going to keep it on my watchlist and monitor :+1:

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Another interesting post from yesterday:

I am surprised by his suggestion, I don’t know about these, but other similar ETPs are generally not intended for long term holding.

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Even pretend assets…

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On one hand, he’s saying buy, buy (and I think his arguments in favour of buying seem sensible) but his speedometer dial gadget is at 72/100 which is a ‘sell’ signal. :thinking:

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Lots of Trade Alerts today, Baba and Tesla seem bullish from the images. I have not checked Microsoft yet, I thought I’d share it all though.

See images and pdfs.

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Note: I am currently in a bit of a hurry, so I have not opened the files yet, hence I don’t know what the difference is between the two Alibaba Trade Alert pdfs. If I have some time I will have a quick look all these.

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Okay, I have now managed to have a look through it.

In y opinion these trade alerts are not very useful for stock buyers, which I imagine is most of us. The reason being that the options are very in the money s we cat really replicte it by buying the stock.
If you don’t do options, I’d say that these are the most relevant 2 points:

So he is very bullish on Alibaba, but thinks that Microsoft might go a bit lower short term before going up again.

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Gold & Silver looking like buys whilst the renegades pump up crypto.

I missed yesterday’s tips, they weren’t out when I checked around 8 pm and now we have today’s tips.

What did he say? Was it about gold? Any predictions? Did he say that this is the dip to buy?

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There is a possibility of a better entry mid-December/January. US is getting slightly hammered more recently.

US growth stocks are poised for a pullback.

A slight correction may or may-not come. The risk reward of the S&P 500 is looking more towards a dip than a growth.

Entry for stocks in general? Or just growth/gold?
I guess he might have been ambiguous.

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Previous message was about stocks.

For precious metals during these low interest periods, prices now seem fair given the strong demand that’s already been seen this year.

Money printing is continuing…

I wonder why he is expecting a dip on growth stocks though.

The momentum lately it has mainly been on the heavily COVID impacted stocks, not growth stocks

Algorithm on the 23rd of November:

imagen

Algorithm today:

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Maybe it is time to sell and await the dip :thinking:.
I think in Europe it will depend on Brexit, if there is an outcome this week.

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Has anybody tracked his profit predictor with any accuracy? Or is there e.g. an archive that one could cross-reference against dips etc in the American market?

He included the plot in at least one of his presentations, showing how it varied over the last few years.

He noted that he doesn’t always follow it, but it gives him a good indication of when to reduce exposure or stay out. He also mentioned that in late 2019 and early 2020 his profit predictor was very high for a few months, yet there was no normal crash. It happened due to Covid, which I guess would have happened regardless of what the predictor said.

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The predictor does not necessarily mean it’s time to sell, it just gives an insight that there is more risk buying now, than when it is much lower. This could go on for an indefinite amount of time.

All throughout 2019 the predictor was stuck in the high 90’s (sell).

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Thanks for the replies. So I suppose on that basis, you should pay attention when it’s weighted towards buy, rather than sell. Or perhaps best to just ignore it altogether!

Just take it as it is, one indicator but not the be all and end all.