What is peoples estimations of this getting to?
They are paying $95 per share, so I canāt see it going higher than that, unless someone has a better offer (which is unlikely), you may be able to make a few quid if it drops.
Surprised that people are selling without waiting for the deal, unless they either need the money, or believe that the deal could run into difficulties (the current problems could be a big concern for MSFT I suspect).
Same hereā¦ Finally in the green haha although I was happy to continue building my position while price was low.
Thatās pretty much how it goes. Assuming nobody wants to pull this in for scrutiny it should be done fairly quickly - a matter of months.
If it gets close to $95 you could just sell up and get your cash into other investments quicker.
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I believe we are looking at completion in 2023. Source being ATVI press release. Something to consider when holding to completion is whether you can pull out the cash now and achieve a greater return on your money vs. letting it sit until the 95 usd payout.
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In the case of āMoney v Ability to make good decisionsā I present exhibit 1,676,588B
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Any idea what that potentially may mean for the merger?
Or will it just be the SEC toothlessly nash against those three but not the eventual takeover.
Even if they all point the finger to Kotick, at this point no company is going to hire him.
Theyāll all get an insider trading fine, if proved, of about $3m and theyāll make off like bandits.
Microsoft wonāt be happy as they need as little friction as possible for this to get through.
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When I see discussions about Twitter $3-$5 upside
Donāt forget Microsoft offered to buy ATVI at $95. Itās currently trading at $77. 19% discount of deal not going through
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Iāve decided to do a bit of a takeover arbitrage here, I donāt think the market is pricing this correctly. The SEC havenāt made enough noise to warrant a $15 discount to the share price.
Given the market is like catching falling knives Iām happy to park funds here for a few months for a 20%+ ROCE (return on capital invested)
Exactly, I mean itās not exactly an unattractive company to own and thereās still plenty of video game expansion left.
Same with Twitter, Iām happy leaving some money in there for a 10% upswing.
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Isnāt that what warren buffet has been doing?
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@FiftyDolTrader youād have ride out a choppy moth or two but ther is a argument that midcrosoft are getting it at a good price.
@Sims I donāt know how long he is holding / has been doing it but yes heās doing the same.
Iām considering arbitrage also as Microsoft is less exposed to regulatory scrutiny than other big tech and they have made their position clear. I think thereās less than a 20% chance this gets held up, members of Congress have already voiced support for example. The big risk for me is FX, with the dollar on a tear a reversal could weigh heavy, although I do expect that to continue as rates rise and the global economy weakens.
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Tricky play this one. Current valuation seems to make it an easy win but the deal isnāt expected to go through until next year. Opportunity cost in that time has to be taken into account especially given the current market situation. I think I will watch this from the sidelines for a couple more months and then decide.
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Spot on with the mention of opportunity cost. Thatās exactly what needs to be considered before jumping in.
Iām wondering if this will trade flat; slowly increase over time; or suddenly jump to near the deal price. I suppose a bit of good news on the acquisition would provide support for a bump up in price.
90% of mergers go through, you could gamble on the current market and hope for some juicy returns if inflation turns out to be transitory or you could get a 23% return over roughly a year with relatively little risk.
Hi Neil,
I have a question here. If I hold Activision in an Isa, what will happen when the deal is done? how do we get the $95?
Thanks.
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Iāve not looked into the deal but assuming Microsoft made an all cash offer youāll get the $95 dollars credited. Youāre still selling the shares just not on the open market.
It doesnāt affect your allowance and being in an ISA any gains are yours to keep without Rishi taking a cut!