Still a while to go but itāll happen eventually hehe
Well this is it
This is basically confirmation of the past 14 months of speculation, Intel will still be selling 10nm CPUs into 2022 while TSMC are already getting good 5nm wafer yields in 2020 and AMD will most likely be pushing them out to consumers in 2021. Iām not sure who is going to be left to buy Intelās 7nm offering once it finally arrives.
I look forward to the next results. Iāve been holding this since March. I believe AMD will take a leap ahead of Intel and maybe the share value will rise to $80 soon. Hopefully 
1 Like
Interested to learn more about TCO
What a rally!
2 Likes
1 Like
Up 10% after market 
1 Like
Just gets better and better. But Fs in chat for Intel holdersā¦
Some interesting news which seems to support a lot of the rumours weāve seen about RDNA 2.
If accurate this really does show the dominance of TSMCās N7P process over Samsung and that Nvidia has made a but of a blunder in their decision for fabrication.
Beyond that weāll have to wait for benchmarks to see if AMDās design (and especially memory bandwidth) can capitalize on their advantage in fab.
First benchmark leaks for Zen 3 CPUs are out, Iām getting very excited about October 8th Zen 3 event. It seems all but certain that AMD will take the gaming crown from Intel (where they can add it to their productivity, perf/watt, perf/$ crowns they have lined up).
Fingers crossed between this and benchmarking leaks for RDNA 3 AMD might test ATHs again.
2 Likes
Just in case any AMD investors arenāt already aware the Zen 3 launch event is tomorrow evening at 5PM.
Iām pretty optimistic about this event as well as the RDNA 2 event and earnings call, hopefully October will be a good month for us.
4 Likes
Printing money since 2017 and I have no doubt we will continue go up.
Honestly I feel like Intel might be tempted to just dump x86 completely. Weāre looking at AMD being dominant in server and pc for probably the first time, even more so than in the early 2000s and theyāre already pricing Zen 3 above competitor SKUs.
Oh whoops I didnāt even mention consoles. See you all north of $100 
1 Like
Yeah itās a shame AMD didnāt call out servers on the call yesterday. A Ryzen announcement is basically an Epyc announcement because itās just differently binned Zen 3 chiplets. Looking at the pricing for the perfect-8 chiplet Ryzens I would guess they are pretty confident on being able to sell the best-binned chiplets at a premium in Epyc products.
I actually sold my December-expiration calls in the middle of the event when it became clear we werenāt going to get any new information and the launch was after earnings. Itās a shame Zen 3 wonāt hit the next earnings report, but I guess January will be exciting.
I think (hope) we will see $100 by Q4 earnings when increased share in datacentre should start becoming obvious.
Yup I just hope they can secure more wafers from TSMC in the coming years, thatās pretty much the only the constraining how much product AMD can sell in the short-medium term.
It looks like theyāre working on that as we speak.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amd-is-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-11602205553
Massive news, it made double the profit AMD did last year. Weāre down 4% on the news but Iād say $30bn is worth it.
At current market cap $100bn, combined profit $1.14bn, its less than 100 p/e. If the price normalised to the current ratio of 168 thats $190 per share.
I donāt know much about Xilinx though, I understand they are fabless as are AMD but it could improve both companies position.
1 Like
Xilinx are another fabless designer (like AMD) they donāt have a foundry so it wonāt alleviate that constraint. Itās a bit confusing because we call everyone āchip makersā even if most of them donāt really make the chip itself. Itās still an interesting acquisition though.
At the top end the foundry side is really just TSMC vs Samsung and in the high performance space from now on itās basically constrained by the ~75 EUV machines we expect by the end of 2021, with ~50 at TSMC and ~25 at Samsung. Those 75 machines can only churn out so many wafers per month so it all comes down to how much AMD can get hold of.
1 Like
Short term pain for long term gain.
Intelās ER seems to indicate a collapse in DC margins
If AMDās Rome is already putting Intel under this much pressure already (as many are speculating) then I think Milan will basically secure as much market share as AMDās wafer constraint will allow. Based on the pricing of the latest (Vermeer) Ryzen chips Iād guess a lot of Zen 3 chiplets are going to be allocated to Milan Epyc CPUs which can only help them going in to Q4.
I guess we find out on Tuesday how much share AMD is actually taking, but Iām expecting big Q4 guidance.
Hot off the pressesā¦
Oops look like it wasnāt supposed to drop before market open!
2 Likes
Wow.
Also, I thought they were due to report after the close today?
1 Like