Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 💻 - Share Chat

Also, I thought they were due to report after the close today?

I don’t think the stock is liking that, nor the $35bn purchase price.

Yeah I thought the ER was tonight as well. This does not look good - I was planning to unwind quite a lot of AMD calls today before the ER.

Purely on the results though its got to be impressive. Guidance for FY revenue is $9.5bn, looking at roughly $1.1bn net (so 80x this years earnings at premarket price). Intel ER clearly showed that they’re starting to struggle in data centre. Then after the Xilinx transaction they will have another $3bn sales and ~$1bn profit after efficiencies. Starting to look cheap again…

Yup I’m even more optimistic long term now. Although I think they’ve overpaid for Xilinx that doesn’t matter in the long run, it just hurts my stupid short term plays (my calls are long dated anyway, so now I missed the chance to sell before the ER I might just let some ride into 2021).

For the fourth quarter of 2020, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $3.0 billion

This wish certainly came true, looks like they are solidifying massive DC gains already and that’s on Zen 2.

I really hope AMD have secured a load of TSMC’s N5 capacity as I honestly think the number of EUV wafers they can buy is the only limit on their revenue until at least 2022 now.

At this point even if Intel magically fix all their fab problems overnight there just isn’t enough time to buy and install the capacity from ASML. I think ASML’s 4Q ER is going to be critical, if we don’t see at least 5 EUV units shipping to NA I think that means Intel is going to quit the foundry game.

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AMD is taking money from intel.

Unusual options activity today, someone is absolutely loading up on Nov/Dec 90Cs and thank god it doesn’t seem to be WSB. Perhaps ahead of some more analyst upgrades / Milan news :crossed_fingers:

Looks like analyst upgrades. Most are at $100 now. I’m really tempted to buy Xilinx to get that 10% discount they’re trading at to the conversion ratio.

I’m not sure what Lisa told CS today, but the share price seems to like it, possibly related but a lot more December options activity, huge amount of 98Cs being traded.

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Some ramblings on AMD as it sits near ATH (likely because Milan news is starting to hot up with corresponding upgrades from analysts)

Charlie from SemiAccurate had a call with Susquehanna yesterday, generally positive themes but nothing particularly new:

The biggest news/rumour is further delays (~2Q22) to Sapphire Rapids which means Milan won’t even be competing with it (although Milan is probably is probably still better). Sapphire Rapids will probably end up competing with Genoa which is going to be incredibly painful for Intel.

Intel’s 7nm process is still in doubt, as is its outsourcing partner (although we know they have some TSMC N7 wafers ordered), and CEO (allegedly).

Charlie is now projecting AMD’s leadership extends to at least 2024/2025 based on current roadmaps.

My main worry now is how Intel’s outsourcing decision will impact AMD, TSMC are already taking advantage of the wafer supply constraint:

AMD really need some good news to come out of Samsung, long term they need the foundries to be competitive, especially if Intel goes fabless/less-fab

Yeah honestly I just stay away from the whole fab end now, was in TSMC briefly but its just too unpredictable for me at least and things can change so rapidly. The more time goes on the more I think Xilinx will turn out an excellent long-term purchase though.

As for Intel I honestly think they should just jettison the x86 business at this point, at least it’ll give them the opportunity to focus on the rest of their portfolio.

Lisa Su’s keynote at CES is in ~7 hours

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Earnings strong as expected and strong 2021 guidance. Seriously whoever has to come up with guidance at AMD has the easiest job in the world right now - count how many wafers you have for the year and multiply by margin, as you know you’ll sell literally every chip that comes out of them.

Yet another upgrade from Susquehanna as a kicker as well.

It’s simple incredible what Lisa has achieved over the past few years: real competition in desktop, mobile, graphics and data centre with a roadmap to leadership. Great news for consumers and investors.

I’m not too worried about how the market reacts in the short term, but I’ve preemptively bought a new PC today (Ryzen of course) to celebrate.

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