Alphabet - GOOG - Share Chat

Good point @NeilB. You are right. I don’t think it is as simple as saying “the market has priced recession into any stock”. Why did a lot of stock rise in the first place? Well the accepted wisdom in some circles is something to do with productivity, profitability and so and so forth. Well it turns out that is not the case. And this may also be true for the topic of this thread: Alphabet. The reason we saw all the recent highs was cheap money. Cheap money flew and stock turned downwards. If you see what’s happening on the money markets you realise that there is considerable hedging going on and the problem for bankers/traders is that they are unsure how quickly and (at what level) interest rates will change. Growth funds can’t react by selling stuff quickly as it will result in a panic and they will go down faster - % management fees burn burn burn.

There is a good post by @101 What is going on today? - Megathread - #2276 by 101 (he has others on this theme). The things he says will make many people feel uncomfortable but people should really reflect on what he is saying: in summary the decline started long time ago and has continued for various reasons and may continue much further. You don’t have to be an expert in macroeconomics to realise that once cheap money disappears money will be moved out irrespective of how well the businesses are doing (I am talking about the whole market here rather than specific businesses - of course the short term returns might be very good on some businesses). The markets could have done all this one year ago i.e. they could have priced all this in one year ago and they did not … the evidence is in the long slide.

Ok. So for those that don’t get any of this and want to know what to do … well it may be the answer is given to us by the sage of Omaha. What has he always said? Invest in the business not the share price.

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