Alphabet - GOOG - Share Chat

I think he considered their ROIC a bit low previously.

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A summary of the Morgan Stanley Conference from a couple of days ago. Not too much groundbreaking information that wasn’t already discussed in the Q4 earnings call.

  1. Looking into developing and incorporating AI into search for it to be more human like and more ‘Conversational.’ There are plans for Google Search to incorporate lens features. For example, taking a picture of a bike with immediate suggestions asking, “How do I fix this” or “What model is this bicycle?”

  2. Further development of Google Cloud with the introduction of productivity tools. The acquisition of Mandiant will also increase its security, thus its USP and market share.

  3. Specific improvements are being made constantly to the retail search category. This will result in user growth, higher merchant spending, and more overall transactions per customer. This is done through connecting users to merchants better in building an open ecosystem with partners such as Shopify and Square.

  4. The increase in capex the last year involved investments in data centres, offices, and their move to hire talent aggressively. Also, more share repurchasing is to be expected in the future.

  5. As for Waymo, more progress is being made in SF in attempts to get through regulation and tests, while tests have also begun in NY. There was also a brief announcement of Waymo Via, as they plan to venture into the logistics space in the future as well.

  6. Finally, they touched on Alphabet’s position in emerging markets, specifically India and Africa. There continues to be large sums of investments in those regions to secure the next billion users (Eg. $10b India digitisation fund to build digital ecosystems, and $1b investment in Africa).

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Google integrates vehicle ads into search.

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Waymo says it’s ready to launch driverless vehicle services in San Francisco! A small step towards profitability for Waymo.

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Waymo offers driverless rides to San Francisco employees, expands in Phoenix.

“While I do not know whether a recession will or will not materialise, I do know that Warren Buffett’s investing philosophy has been effective in generating healthy returns over the long term. I will continue to invest in companies with solid fundamentals, strong earnings, and potential for growth. I believe Alphabet checks all these boxes.”

“The tech-heavy Nasdaq in the US is down over 12% so far this year. That presents plenty of opportunities for me to buy shares in big US-listed tech companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft.”

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Alphabet have put out a few good ML papers recently, some amazing capabilities. I’ve linked the blog posts but the papers are well worth a read.

It’s not Alphabet/Google owned/related but for morons like me who are interested or even just not aware of what modern computery stuff can do, I really recommend this channel on YouTube which has some short videos showing what’s possible…

I think I’m most impressed by the machine learning systems that can create a 3D world from a few 2D pictures. It’s witchcraft! It feels like we’re only a few years away from having photorealistic Grand Theft Auto games based in any town/city in the world… all based on a few Google Maps photos and some AI.

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Two minute papers is good, I’ve watched a fair bit of it.

They actually covered one of the papers I linked above and it’s very similar in concept to the Intel one you shared.

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Whilst I’m bullish on $GOOGL, I can’t help but worry that even if the numbers come in above consensus, it’ll be the outlook that could possibly send shares lower tomorrow. If that’s the case, I’ll definitely be adding to my position to capitalise on the fear. Nevertheless, I reckon the following metrics could determine which way the stock swings, assuming revenue and earnings fall in line with expectations.

  1. Operating margin. I reckon this could be key. If Alphabet manages to maintain or improve its margins, it shows that the company’s comfortably passing cost onto consumers without any issues. This would give investors confidence that the company’s able to weather the inflationary storm.

  2. Cloud. If it surges towards profitability, we could see a couple of defensive positions being taken, given the inelastic demand for cloud.

  3. Search. Given that the bulk of Google’s revenue stems from there, investors would love for that to remain unmoved. That being said, I think investors should be relatively forgiving in other regions, provided it doesn’t impact headline revenue.

  4. 20-1 split. Whilst the split was announced in the last quarter, it’s still subject to board approval. So getting clarify/confirmation on this could be a catalyst to send the share price higher or lower.

  5. Outlook. The most important one, and one everyone’s hoping will come in above analysts’ estimates.

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“With such an excellent track record and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22, I’ll definitely be buying more shares. Although this evening’s earnings report could disappoint, I’m confident in Alphabet’s ability to generate long-term returns.”

Disclaimer: I do not stand to profit in any way from sharing this article or the views I get. I am merely sharing this as an opinion to offer my insight to the stock whilst hoping to contribute to the discussion. These posts have been also been cleared by the mods.

Beat revenues, missed on earnings.

Authorised to buy back up to $70bn shares.

Down about 4%.

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Alphabet Inc. reported earnings for its Q1 2022 results yesterday evening. Since then, Alphabet shares have taken a tumble as earnings missed analysts’ expectations. They’re still up a few percent over 12 months though. However, amid the latest sell-off, here’s why I’ll be buying more shares of Alphabet.

Disclaimer: I do not stand to profit in any way from sharing this article or the views I get. I am merely sharing this as an opinion to offer my insight to the stock whilst hoping to contribute to the discussion. These posts have been also been cleared by the mods.

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From the earnings call when listening last night, they’re investing $9.5bn into their cloud infrastructure this year as well and hiring 12,000 staff, I believe this staff figure was majority for Cloud not wholly for GCP (would have to check the earnings call again).
See if GCP makes a profit, the gross margins Microsoft gets from Azure (70%) would be nice to see I’m sure, though Microsofts full suite of tools and integration is good.

It was also mentioned about some testing of monetisation on YouTube Shorts, which should help in the long term

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I don’t know if many other people on here have been burnt by Google’s chaotic history with messaging but between that and everything catalogued on https://killedbygoogle.com/, I’m really wary of investing in Alphabet. The management culture Google is bizarre - they seem to be successful in spite of it, not because of it.

I really recommend that messaging article despite it being VERY long. It’s a great insight into the organisation. They’re currently grabbing Stadia by the neck and choking the life out of it - that was their experiment in online gaming. Google Play Music’s transition into YouTube music was another outstanding clusterfuck. In fact there are pointers that the whole “Google Play” branding might be facing the chop too.

They’re a highly profitable search engine with ‘side projects’, very few of which they seem to take seriously. How on earth did they let a shopping website (Amazon) dominate the cloud computing space? That should have been Google’s natural realm. Rant rant rant…

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Yeah very much so, I think once they killed off Google Hangouts, I refused to use any of their chat apps again, even though I’m very much within their ecosystem for a number of other things.

Too many to detail, but I’d gather you can categorise a large number of the services into three things in my mind;

  • Rebranding companies they’ve taken over e.g. Nest services.
  • Lack of uptake so they can’t hoover up a lot of data for selling ads.
  • Just things they can’t monetise, I suspect a number of things were just technical exercises that then got merged into some other functionality they had.

And agree not always a great look throwing resources at these projects if they get canned, but I’d see it as innovation to find something that sticks software wise to collect data.

A couple of the main things that have stuck can be best seen as gatekeeper software, their large uptake controls our access to the internet and data, i.e. Chrome and Android
Chrome (60-70% market share) to the point Microsoft build Edge off Chromium source code (used for Chrome as well), this gives Google somewhat scary control over the Webs direction.

Android being on billions of devices gives yet more access to data.

Google also paying Apple billions to be the default search engine, when most people won’t change it, this allows them to cover most mobile devices.

Ultimately Google are a data company/collector/processor, think similar to Meta, hence why Google tried to breach messaging and social media, though I do believe they were slow or didn’t invest as much in cloud early on.

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I’m averaging down

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You might get your wish, who knows at the moment … 18.9 PE at time of post, low for tech.

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