Agree on the split focus on the Uber car @FiftyDolTrader, modular bus and van first, it’s a high risk venture, so they need to get their “model S” out the door for half a decade or so more akin to Tesla.
@DDend24 To me, Arrival is like Space X, not Tesla, Tesla takes Henry Ford’s production line rationale which revolutionised the auto industry 114 years ago and achieved success by going to “giga” economies of scale. But Space X saw how NASA et al. were doing 1-off rockets which cost hundreds of millions to launch as costly, cumbersome, and over-burdened by legacy process, and in essence, disrupted the sector and achieved success with modular componentry which could be safely returned to earth and re-used.
ARVL has the potential to be the Ocado meets space-x revolution the auto industry needs. The end of buying legacy auto’s gigantic campuses which were not cost-effective, and going for something more modular and flexible. The reason I mention Ocado, is that no auto company has gone “full-robo” to the extent ARVL is planning. So in the same way big supermarkets are hungry for Ocado’s factory robotics for the picking of goods, big auto could be the same for ARVL’s similar disruption. I appreciate I’m jumping between supermarkets and space exploration but that’s because auto doesn’t have anything like this. And as a result legacy co.s do not want to be disrupted in this way!
So IF - the ARVL’s micro-factories are indeed the Ocado of automotive production towards a Space X of modular efficiency, they are a world changing and industry disrupting business. Does it mean I’m not terrified of the cash burn to build establish and protect this investment at the time of incredible global instability? Nope. But as a technologist, I believe industry needs to move beyond giga and back to micro (or meta???!) for a hundred years of reasons from productivity, work-life balance, environmental sustainability and more.
People are getting excited about modular / micro nuclear, micro-assembly, so I’m “BIG” on “Micro” basically (and small on BIG industry of the past if that makes sense).
As an aside, it to me is similar to the change that saw industrial plastics as a wonder-material of the 50-60’s, but their economic and environmental cost at scale resulted in technological disruption and to the materials 3D printing revolution (metal/concrete/plastic etc…) all the way down to consumer level - i.e. I print what I need at home using recycled plastic filament.
So, not a fanboi of ARVL per se, but a fan of the industrial and technological change and more finessed evolution that needs to happen in production. ARVL are the only ones bold / crazy enough to go for it, and the level of interest shows others may feel the same. Will the market/big auto/market conditions suffocate it before it “makes it” - I don’t know, but I do remember when Tesla was “never going to make it” against big auto. The challenge is, they just can’t share too much of the special sauce that is their production IP, but sharing evidence of its “success” is exactly what consumers want.
Fun times for all concerned (and all interested in brutal, risky, but ultimately necessary technology disruption…) 