Arrival - ARVL - Share Chat

More dodgy news last night from the EV spac space with Canoo revealing in earnings call that they had been a bit presumptuous with some of their earlier announcements. Expect the whole sector is going to struggle for a while until it becomes clear which companies are the real deal and which are the charlatans. Im now looking to average down once the price finds its level and wait for 18 months. When they successfully launch their products and start ramping up production the share price should rise. Until then likely to be a volatile stock in my opinion.

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Considering there products are not aimed at consumers it surprises me how promotional they have been. That being said keeping shareholders engaged and excited is good particularly if they want to raise more capital. Let’s hope there’s no reason for Hindenburg to take a look.

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Good observation. I’ve noticed that too. They are very slick and clearly put a huge amount of thought into their brand. I personally think that’s no bad thing. In a few years time I think a lot of EVs on the market will pretty much converge in terms of core capabilities and it will be the ones who manage to distinguish themselves who will do well.

Indeed, lots of marketing for a business product. I don’t think that is what business owners want, they rather have proper working products. I am a bit conflicted of the van changing shape this far in the process. They had been working on the small size van for years and suddenly they come out with a new model before the first one is even seen driving.

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Yep the van changing shape put me right off for the time being, got out on the spike to $27 a few weeks back. A current valuation of $10b means there is a lot of room for volatility to the downside, any change in revenue forecasts and they will get absolutely hammered.

The new van is a development of the original, it’s not a new model its a replacent. Obviously things like crash protection, aerodynamics etc were more of a deciding factor. The first one was more of a prototype

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I actually got an answer to this very question in a Twitter Q&A they ran a few weeks back. They said:

We continue to see huge demand from customers around the world for a wide range of van sizes & configurations. The vehicle has been designed to enable us to bring a range of roof heights, type approval & optimised configurations at the speed we need in order to meet demand 1/2

The updated design enables a more rapid global introduction of a wider range of height variants and configurations, all optimised for businesses and consumers 2/2

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Not buying that: they would have known much earlier on in the process that customers want different sizes. I don’t see how a different shape makes it easier to produce. In the flat windscreen, you can just ‘cut’ the glass at different heights, in the new shape, you have two extra triangular side windows that have to be of different sizes. So no standardisation possible.

I don’t see why, no reason the doors or side windows need to change just because the roof height changes. the doors can still be standardised

Currently hodling to hell. Appreciating how much the price has tanked for seemingly no reason since the ticker changed.


I expect the old windscreen’s shape was constrained by the original chassis, and as complex as it was, it would’ve been much harder to adapt to new variants. I’d expect there was probably a lot of pressure from private investors to decrease costs in the run up to going public.

IMO, it’s not changing the overall usability of the product. If anything, moving the driving position back will make it easier to achieve higher safety ratings which they can present as an additional feature.

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I personally don’t have the expertise to judge either way on the design change. For me the key element to arrival will be whether the microfactories deliver the pricing advantages they are claiming. If they do then there is massive market share available and a formula for rapidly growing the company. Commercial EVs still in their infancy in the UK and a price competitive van with 250+ miles range would clean up. We will have to hold for a year or two to genuinely find out. I’m planning to average down when the valuation find its level. Current market cap is not unreasonable given they don’t get have a product on the market.

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I don’t believe in the microfactory: you cannot build a moulding facility for 50 vans only or you are going to have massive costs for each mould. Or are they going to move the whjole factory around the world. One year they build in New York, the next year in LA, … That won’t attract specialized and motivated personnel. What will they do with their empty locations? Leave them empty. City officials will not like that a company comes in for 1 year and moves on again.

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You would expect investors Hyundai and Kia believe in the micro factory.

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I dont think that’s the thinking here - they are still building permanent factories with a decent annual capacity. 10,000 vans or 1000 buses I think were the quoted numbers. These are not far off the sort of volumes Alexander Dennis put out at Falkirk for busses and LEVC are planning at Coventry for commercial vehicles but a long way short of the 150,000 sprinter Mercedes build at Dusseldorf each year. As I understand it, their claim is they have come up with production processes which dont require the usual economies of scale to be competitive with diesel so can grow more quickly with smaller factories.

I guess we will find if this is true when they launch their products on the market and begin releasing quarterly financials.

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The whole idea of microfactories is that standardisation is unnecessary. Every component can be customised with ease since it only requires software reconfiguration to bring it to production.

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How would they produce the panels? If they mean customization to have different colourschemes, I can understand having a paintshop but you cannot change anything structural. And then you come to the beginning question: why should they be produced near the client? If they built in the middle of the USA, they can service the whole country. In the EU same story. And the US and EU are the two most important markets (I cannot imagine them setting up shop in Africa where charging points are completely absent).

I recommend you watch some videos of the microfactories on their YouTube channel as they will answer a lot of your questions. The team has re-imagined the idea of a production line from the ground-up, so a lot of the concerns you have don’t apply.

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This is a good start…

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This is the worst performing stock I have ever owned to date. Its performed worse than my largest dropping cryptocurrency! Looks like I’m in it for the long haul, even if just too break even!

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You definitely need patience with this one. The antics from the likes of Nikola an Lordstown took a lot of momentum from the EV start up sector but nothing has fundamentally changed. Also, bag holding for the long haul then selling when you break even is a really common mistake investors often make. If you have conviction the company will be successful then hold and wait for the returns to come. If you dont then better to sell up and move on in my view.

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