Carnival 🚢 🌴 🎠(£CCL) - Share Chat

Lots of job cuts to reduce costs. Will start sailing again in August. Could go either way.

While I still think Carnival are in the best shape in the sector, that’s not an ideal metric. Compare the sector to others and they’re all in awful shape. I can certainly see some lines going under even at best, and I think if Carnival goes under that’s the whole sector going under.

So to answer the question, would I put money in with the aim of doubling it? Oh heck no. It could just as easily halve. I’d look for the technology sector instead, to take one example. Wouldn’t expect to double my money, granted, but also wouldn’t expect to lose half of it.

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Long term hold for me. Makes up very little of my portfolio to be fair though. But think unless they went out of business, that they will recover. It’s just going to take a few years at best!

Nice thought @101 what will gen Z and millenials be using next year ?!
UK stocks only - (not touching any Dow until sub 20k)

:+1:t2:

I bough shares in Naked Wines last week and have been quite lucky (virtually speaking as I have not sold the shares). I have not used it myself but it is a dedicated booze delivery. With pubs closed, everybody is now drinking at home hence I thought it was worth investing.

For the rest I think telecom (Vodafone*, Verizon, …) are interesting: with many people working from home, data volumes have gone up and probably many companies are paying extra to get new connections installed at their employees’ homes. Pity Telefónica is not listed on LSE, in the light of the upcoming merger with O2, that would have been an interesting stock.

I am sticking with tech and for a medium play, personalised healthcare on our devices. Genes, gut, nutrition… all personalised based on your own biology.

We’ve had internet on devices, social media on devices, finances & banking on devices… Surely it’s got to be healthcare’s time to shine on devices. I’ll sure pay a £100 yearly subscription to know exactly which nutrition to follow to prolong life and avoid certain illnesses, or eradicate current issues :call_me_hand:t3:

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One way of trying to assess the risk related to Carnival might be to look at the conditions attached to the borrowing that it has done recently, and compare it to other large multinationals.

Carnival have had to stump up 11.5% interest recently. Disney and Diageo got their lucre for 1.75% and 1.375% respectively and keep the cash for longer.

One interpretation on the back of an envelope might be that the debt market thinks that Carnival carries around 6.5x more risk than Disney or 8.5x more risk than Diageo.

Carnival

Disney
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/the_walt_disney_company/SEC/sec-show.aspx?Type=html&FilingId=14142977&CIK=0001744489&Index=10000

Diageo

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Carnival, easyJet, Centrica, and Meggitt are expected to drop out of the FTSE 100. While Avast, Homeserve, GVC, and Convatec are expected to replace them.

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I’ve read this! If this happens you think the new stocks that will be added to FTSE 100 will start to increase?

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Large banks will have had their Equities Desks building positions up in these stocks in order to facilitate these index rebalances. Probably much of the gain from increased demand has been realised. You often see stocks fall for a week or two after rebalances before large Institutional investors and hedges funds move in.

What being in an index does grant is reduced volatility. This is because the inflows into ETFs help create sustained demands for a stock which means the share price is supported (but not inflated).

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As well as the direct effects, Covid 19 is also creating conditions where crusing can be tested in other ways, and could lead to more challenge for Carnival to deal with. Interesting times.

Any thoughts on making a play for this? Down 60% YTD and probably has a horrible few quarters still to come.

But I wonder if this is a good value play long term, with the negativity baked in…

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I’ve wondered the same. When it comes to investing I always say that you can’t underestimate American greed and avarice - chuck in their lack of enthusiasm for travelling outside of their own country - and I’ve no doubt that these environment wrecking ships will be packed full of tourists as soon as possible.

That said, can the company last that long and, ethically speaking, do I really want to invest in such a horrid industry?

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Certainly not one for the ethical funds.

I think when you consider the amount of capital that older couples - the cruise demo - will have saved this year not going away you could see a flood of demand.

I think I’ll enter this play for just £200 and see where it runs.

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I took profits on the Pfizer news.

There are still a lot of headwinds, this is not the same company that went into the pandemic. They have got incredible levels of debt (which is not at all cheap: 10%+) and now they are facing a US which looks to be increasingly environmentally aware. I think the question is whether they can make enough money to service that debt before regulations start coming in.

That said there will be plenty of boomers unaffected by the pandemic who didn’t cruise in 2020 ready to throw money at them as soon as bookings open up so :man_shrugging:

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund bought an 8% stake back in April. Im happy holding as long as they are!

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Built up a fair position in this over the last 6 months. Similar to Cineworld where potential upside may be very appealing if they can somehow see it through the next 6 months or so. Not for the faint hearted though.

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This has got to be a good buy at some point but with so many restrictions being put on travel and entering countries I can’t see it rising anytime soon and may sink even further. One to watch for sure!

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Thankfully I took a punt early on at £8. Huge risk at the time but noticed that the Saudi Arabia public fund had bought a few million shares as well so figured they try pretty hard to keep them alive :joy::sweat_smile:

Well they do have pre bookings for 2022 and enough cash and assets. If they have invested then they must be sure of a turnaround!

That was my completely uneducated assumption :man_shrugging:

Plus, they’re the biggest in the game. If they don’t survive then I’d be worried for the others.

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