Carnival - CCL - Share Chat

As well as the direct effects, Covid 19 is also creating conditions where crusing can be tested in other ways, and could lead to more challenge for Carnival to deal with. Interesting times.

Any thoughts on making a play for this? Down 60% YTD and probably has a horrible few quarters still to come.

But I wonder if this is a good value play long term, with the negativity baked in…

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I’ve wondered the same. When it comes to investing I always say that you can’t underestimate American greed and avarice - chuck in their lack of enthusiasm for travelling outside of their own country - and I’ve no doubt that these environment wrecking ships will be packed full of tourists as soon as possible.

That said, can the company last that long and, ethically speaking, do I really want to invest in such a horrid industry?

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Certainly not one for the ethical funds.

I think when you consider the amount of capital that older couples - the cruise demo - will have saved this year not going away you could see a flood of demand.

I think I’ll enter this play for just £200 and see where it runs.

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I took profits on the Pfizer news.

There are still a lot of headwinds, this is not the same company that went into the pandemic. They have got incredible levels of debt (which is not at all cheap: 10%+) and now they are facing a US which looks to be increasingly environmentally aware. I think the question is whether they can make enough money to service that debt before regulations start coming in.

That said there will be plenty of boomers unaffected by the pandemic who didn’t cruise in 2020 ready to throw money at them as soon as bookings open up so :man_shrugging:

The Saudi sovereign wealth fund bought an 8% stake back in April. Im happy holding as long as they are!

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Built up a fair position in this over the last 6 months. Similar to Cineworld where potential upside may be very appealing if they can somehow see it through the next 6 months or so. Not for the faint hearted though.

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This has got to be a good buy at some point but with so many restrictions being put on travel and entering countries I can’t see it rising anytime soon and may sink even further. One to watch for sure!

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Thankfully I took a punt early on at £8. Huge risk at the time but noticed that the Saudi Arabia public fund had bought a few million shares as well so figured they try pretty hard to keep them alive :joy::sweat_smile:

Well they do have pre bookings for 2022 and enough cash and assets. If they have invested then they must be sure of a turnaround!

That was my completely uneducated assumption :man_shrugging:

Plus, they’re the biggest in the game. If they don’t survive then I’d be worried for the others.

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Talk of vaccine passports for holidays. Surely having a “cruise bubble” feels plausible in this crazy world?

Anyone else going long on this?

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I’ve been hesitating. I’m surprised the share price has stayed at this level. The future is still very uncertain. The vessels need maintaining while they are not operating and while they are locked down, they are becoming more debt laden. There doesn’t seem to be an end in sight for the cruise industry. While the UK is trying to vaccinate itself into normality, the rest of the world are proceeding at different paces. The new variants have me worried too. However, I’m probably going to take a chance and hope they will bounce back strongly. Cruise customers are very loyal.
Decisions, decisions…

I took a punt on CCL, lets see how they get on.

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Same as you Mark. I took a punt a while back

My logic was the share price crashed after the first lockdown and if they can ride it out the cruise market should come good. As they had a $3B market capitalisation (according to Freetrade’s data) I’m hoping they’ve got the funds, or can borrow them, to keep going.

To date I’m up about 50%. Was hoping to bail at £20/share but they’re making announcements on Thursday and their head honcho stated publicly recently he predicts the next two years will be hard for the cruise industry.

Might have to “jump ship” LOL

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I believe the Saudi investment fund invested heavily early covid so you’re probably safe

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Didn’t go all in but felt worth a punt mid December on the basis that things can only get better

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If anyone can ride it out, Carnival can. If they can’t stay afloat, it’s hard to see any of the small companies (Royal Caribbean, Norwegian) managing to.

I’ve some money in CCL myself - had shares before the crash, sold when they were on the way down, then bought back near the bottom (so ended up with many more shares for the same money) - though last I checked the gains hadn’t quite cancelled out the losses. Might’ve managed it in the last few days - though who knows which way they’ll go after Thursday.

If Thursday goes well, long term hold - people who cruise still want to cruise. If it doesn’t go well, may have to bail. Potential issue is the amount of borrowings - is that going to restrict future profts and thus be a massive drag on the share price? It’s tricky.

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Thursday didn’t go too badly. Think I’ll hold for now

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Looks like it could be a good time to buy in on this!?