Carnival - CCL - Share Chat

Should we have a resurgence of this awful event in the winter, CCL could be another half off the price it’s currently at.

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@Robinspain if you sold everything you had and had to entrust it to strangers which person you don’t know would you give your money too? Or would you look out those you thought looked the most trustworthy and divide it out?

There are no charges on stock buying and you can buy fractionals. Why, just why would you commit the cardinal sin of throwing everything - not even on Amazon which weathered the storm, but on a cruise liner losing millions of pounds a day with no certainty of when it will recover? Do you not think CCL will likely hold another issue diluting your shares to stay afloat? If you were a bank would you lend to CCL?

Have a look at Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Paypal, Google (Alphabet), Intel, Nvidea, Match and if you want some fun Tesla. That’s a great start

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Tesla doubled in one month :v:t3:

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Hi Ben, Thanks, like i said i am not putting all my eggs in one basket, just an amount that i dont need.
I guess one of the main reasons of my interest in CCL is the size of the fall, like i mentioned i am not looking at getting back up to the original highs. The Companies you mention are no doubt strong businesses that are arguably more investable, but would they meet my criteria, of doubling up over the next 10-12 months. A question which noone can truely answer but this is all about opinions and feedback.

Carnival is definitely more likely to go bankrupt than double in a year.

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I bought carnival as a bit of a punt. It’s currently 0.82% of my portfolio. My aim for carnival is more survive than thrive!

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I think you could do better. If you want some fun and a rollercoaster you could try Tesla. Catching a falling knife isnt usually successful. I’ve tried to do it and almost every time I’ve failed.
But regarding carnival who’s core customers are risk adverse people age 50+ well even if cruises get sailing I dont see how theyll get their key target to return. We dont have a vaccine and lockdown is now until mid summer and weve a whole winter to look forward to. Can CCL survive another year not sailing? They might have to

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Not a bad thought to be fair, maybe better off keeping an eye on them rather than spending any money on it for now

There’s quite a few areas that have fallen but not been part of the bounce back yet. Cineworld, Expedia, pubs, estate agents… Surely there’ll be some room for improvement when we start to edge back to normal

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It’s a terrible thought on so many levels. It’s hard to mention all of them.

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Look how savage airlines are and they are more popular than cruises.

A better approach imo would be to picture what gen z and millennial will definitely be using next year. Much better opportunities.

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I already had very little interest in cruises and now I certainly won’t be going on one. I’m a Gen Z (just) so I’m on the border between two generations and we’re not cruise lovers.

It’s a love of Gen X and older and they are higher risk from this pandemic.

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Lots of job cuts to reduce costs. Will start sailing again in August. Could go either way.

While I still think Carnival are in the best shape in the sector, that’s not an ideal metric. Compare the sector to others and they’re all in awful shape. I can certainly see some lines going under even at best, and I think if Carnival goes under that’s the whole sector going under.

So to answer the question, would I put money in with the aim of doubling it? Oh heck no. It could just as easily halve. I’d look for the technology sector instead, to take one example. Wouldn’t expect to double my money, granted, but also wouldn’t expect to lose half of it.

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Long term hold for me. Makes up very little of my portfolio to be fair though. But think unless they went out of business, that they will recover. It’s just going to take a few years at best!

Nice thought @101 what will gen Z and millenials be using next year ?!
UK stocks only - (not touching any Dow until sub 20k)

:+1:t2:

I bough shares in Naked Wines last week and have been quite lucky (virtually speaking as I have not sold the shares). I have not used it myself but it is a dedicated booze delivery. With pubs closed, everybody is now drinking at home hence I thought it was worth investing.

For the rest I think telecom (Vodafone*, Verizon, …) are interesting: with many people working from home, data volumes have gone up and probably many companies are paying extra to get new connections installed at their employees’ homes. Pity Telefónica is not listed on LSE, in the light of the upcoming merger with O2, that would have been an interesting stock.

I am sticking with tech and for a medium play, personalised healthcare on our devices. Genes, gut, nutrition… all personalised based on your own biology.

We’ve had internet on devices, social media on devices, finances & banking on devices… Surely it’s got to be healthcare’s time to shine on devices. I’ll sure pay a £100 yearly subscription to know exactly which nutrition to follow to prolong life and avoid certain illnesses, or eradicate current issues :call_me_hand:t3:

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One way of trying to assess the risk related to Carnival might be to look at the conditions attached to the borrowing that it has done recently, and compare it to other large multinationals.

Carnival have had to stump up 11.5% interest recently. Disney and Diageo got their lucre for 1.75% and 1.375% respectively and keep the cash for longer.

One interpretation on the back of an envelope might be that the debt market thinks that Carnival carries around 6.5x more risk than Disney or 8.5x more risk than Diageo.

Carnival

Disney
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/the_walt_disney_company/SEC/sec-show.aspx?Type=html&FilingId=14142977&CIK=0001744489&Index=10000

Diageo

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Carnival, easyJet, Centrica, and Meggitt are expected to drop out of the FTSE 100. While Avast, Homeserve, GVC, and Convatec are expected to replace them.

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I’ve read this! If this happens you think the new stocks that will be added to FTSE 100 will start to increase?

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Large banks will have had their Equities Desks building positions up in these stocks in order to facilitate these index rebalances. Probably much of the gain from increased demand has been realised. You often see stocks fall for a week or two after rebalances before large Institutional investors and hedges funds move in.

What being in an index does grant is reduced volatility. This is because the inflows into ETFs help create sustained demands for a stock which means the share price is supported (but not inflated).

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