China-US trade war about to end?

The stock markets are at their best for months and the business news rumoring that a deal is in the pipeline really should make a big difference to market confidence.

People talk about Brexit and the market, but with the state of the European markets it has had little impact in my opinion on global markets. The drag down is really just the US-China bust up. Resolve that and share prices will soar everywhere.

There have been many false dawns. Multiple times there have been talk of breakthroughs and summits, and then out of nowhere, new tariffs are announced. There is no strategy, no clear line of thought, what has been achieved? The US announced steel tariffs with the EU for fuck’s sake.

My portfolio is mostly US, and some Asia. So the trade war stuff hurts. I hope to see an end to it soon, and it’d be great if it means China genuinely opens up their market more, but I don’t see any long term trade resolution happening during a Trump administration.

The tariffs have quite unusual democrat support. I think there is a lot of support for them now Trump was bold enough to do it. I don’t think the Democrats were prepared to risk anything (and Republicans for that matter pre Trump). Now his I don’t care approach seems to have emboldened the US as a whole to see this through. I have to say as much as I don’t like it as an investor, as a neutral I commend him. None of us would like China to do to us what it has done to US businesses. It’s theft of the most blatant kind.

Democrats were historically more likely to complain about trade, they complained about NAFTA even though they originally passed it. But the reason I think any long term resolution will only come after the Trump administration, is that literally anyone else in politics is likely to stick to a deal. Trump’s word is worthless. He could agree to one thing and then immediately renege on it.