Cineworld (CINE) 🎥

I went last week and it was good to escape the world for nearly 2 hours.
No phone notification bliss

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Holding my breath…

Hope your not still holding your breath

I don’t think Cinemas are a dying industry, but their current business model is.

A few years ago some of the top Hollywood Directors were discussing the future of cinema presentation. They believed that the cost would increase dramatically and that the Cinema going experience would become more like going to the Theatre.

Places like the Everyman cinema in Liverpool are already looking to this future. With food and alcohol helping extend the time people spend in a cinema.

There will be changes to Cineworld’s business model but they won’t die. But they will need more investment to make it happen.

It also wouldn’t surprise me to see the studios themselves start buying up the chains. While streaming is going to build, Cinema is still where the majority of the income comes.

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Going to cinema is a totally different experience to watching movies at home. I have a massive Sony A9 TV (still rated pretty much the best TV out there) and a high quality NAD Dolby surround system but the experience is nowhere near the same as at the cinema.

We just watched the recent Marvel movie on Disney+, it cost about £22 to rent and while we enjoyed it, I am absolutely certain it would have been a better experience on the big screen.

We will be back to the cinema as a family soon and one of my sons went just a week ago with a friend.

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Over 7% shorted and new people taking notice of this stock now . They’ll be getting nervous . But then again it’s Friday.

Today (so far) has been a welcome step in the right direction, even if it’s dropped back a bit again…

Don’t confuse 7% short with a buying signal of the back of the GME situation. The short position is taken by professional fund managers who have world class training, algorithmic trading bots & access to data retail investors simply do not have.

Cinema might not be dead (I’m no cinema fan so not really in a position to comment) but the way they do business is. They’re loaded to the gills with over $8bn in debt and pre Covid when times were better they made $881m profit.

The people who stand to gain will be the ones who buys the prime assets after this folds and goes into C11 / Liquidation. If you’re holding Amazon or Disney then you might end up with some of these in the next 24 months.

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Even shorts sometimes get burnt . Just keeping this in my watch list , got a pound or two from ebang, and foresight to dabble with when the price is right.

I don’t which side of this thesis to pick. On the one side I can definitely see chains like Everyman thriving as theatres have to add something to the experience to get people off sofas but there’s nothing like even a basic cinema, at least for me as a cinema fan. And I’m pretty sure people agree with me. Since they started lowering tickets in 2018 attendance did go up so not sure upping the price will be a total winner. They also stayed profitable despite this and higher debt. The age of the multiplex is probably over, but cinemas with one or two large screens for the occasional sell-out release and a bunch of smaller ones should be fine. Not sure what proportion of those Cineworld operates.

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Massively bullish for theatres imo. SVOD does not have the consolidation pressure of music, at some point people would rather just go to a theatre once a month rather than pay more for a subscription they will never use.

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