Cineworld (CINE) 🎥

Buddy, im sensitive to you posting garbage when you clearly know nothing about the fundamentals of the situation or the business.

You keep commenting. You keep posting things that are not true.

All I’m doing is correcting you.

If you have no interest, and clearly no knowledge why do you keep posting?

Sorry if this was asked and explained before, but in real layman terms, can anyone give me a simple run down of the various ways this could go ? What could happen to the currents shares ? Like a worst to best case scenario explanation if possible.

Really sad to think that cineworld could disappear from our high streets.
Thanks in advance.

Worst : company goes under. Shares are gone, investors have lost all they put into it.
Administrators appointed and look to get as much as possible for creditors.
Shareholders are not creditors.

Best : they sort this out, don’t fall into the same issue 12 month later.

And in the middle, they sort it and do the this same in the near future

Worst case is Chapter 7, which is what we in the UK are more familiar with - administrators are called in. The business is liquidated. Creditors get the proceeds. Shareholders get nothing.

Chapter 11 protects from Chapter 7 until around February.

Best case: debts are restructured to be sustainable, some debt for equity to write off some debts. Film slate improves increasing revenue back to where it was pre covid. Cineplex case is settled favourably. Leases are renogiated to more affordable levels, reducing the up to 30% increases in rents post covid. Unprofitable locations are closed.

Most likely outcome is the latter IMO with a NewCo formed after Chapter 11. Existing shareholders moved to NewCo. The question is how much dilution in the NewCo for existing shareholders. Its not necessarily bad news, it all depends on the value of the NewCo. If you have 1000 shares worth 3p each in cineworld which are diluted to 100 shares in NewCo, but if those shares are worth 31p, shareholders are better off. However, if existing shareholders are given 10 shares in NewCo shareholders are worse off, at least short term.

Noone knows the value of the NewCo as much depends on the debt burden after a restructure, how much rents can be negotiated down, how much equity creditors demand, whether the film slate improves and whether people return to cinema.

And, of course the elephant in the room that is the cineplex case. Chapter 11 protects cineworld from paying the damages until the appeal is heard. Appeal is scheduled for early next month. IMO cineworld lose and have to pay the damages as set, chapter 7 is a very real possibility.

Its why it is very high risk, noone knows. Anyone saying they have any answers are lying. Noone knows. Not even Mooky.

Either come February Cineworld exits Chapter 11 with a viable, sustainable, profitable business. Or, it is forced into Chapter 7 and is liquidated.

Again, either scenario there is the very real possibility existing shareholders lose everything - either diluted to the point shares are worthless or they cease trading.

I take positively the fact Mooky has not sold any of his 20% stake, so whatever happens to shareholders happens to him. We lose, he loses.

EDIT: just to be clear, I’m not encouraging anyone to buy, nor am I encouraging anyone to sell.
Shorters and day traders have, and are making a killing with this stock so anyone needs to be completely clear on what they are investing in and why they are doing so.

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Thanks Matt for taking time to reply. That all made sense. Que sera sera i guess.

It will be heartbreaking to see them close down if it comes to that not to mention the impact on staff and their families. Fingers crossed things do improve.

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Morning, I received an email regarding Goldman Sachs dealing with Cineworld. Please, does anyone know if they are increasing their stakes in Cineworld or else?

Désolé mon cher ami, j’en ai aucune idée.

Just to get an idea from all of you experienced investers… have you all sold off your Cineworld shares ? If not, why not?
And i keep reading about averaging down… does that mean people buy more shares when price drops ?
Thanks.

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Usually yes, as it lowers your average price paid. However with whats going on with cineworld. Most investors are either just holding or selling.

And those here who have (had) shares, have you guys sold ? I guess i should just sell up ?

I am still holding up. Hoping for an unexpected miracle. Mine is already 90% loss.

Holey smokes, i hope you didnt buy too many!

What’s the chances Cineworld will survive the chapter 11 and what is going to happen to current shares afterwards if it does?

There’s a chance AMC could buy Cineworld?

Full Faith :mechanical_arm:

That would be unlikely, antitrust / competition laws would probably block this.

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Its a funny one . Uk cineworld despite not having hi turn outs is still hitting 95% profit . Its the American ones that seem to be having trouble. I haven’t got a lot of shares so its worth it for me to take a chance. Good luck ppl . Hope it does good for you guys .

Do you have a source for this? Gross or net? 95% of either would be huge, like higher than google search huge

Talking to staff over the past month at boldon cineworld. A few of them said they had shares and the regularly have meetings with head honchos . I ask every time i go in. Having the unlimited card . They’ve started showing older films like jaws 3D . Maybe thats why there doing good . They seem confident with uk . Any one here vist American cinema and know how there doing first hand .

There is zero chance Im watching Jaws 3D

They pulling your rope.

I also very much doubt the people your speaking to know the financials for both ‘that cinema’ and ‘the UK group’
I would also query where Boldon is. though I accept typos. - what sort of staffing level are you talking to where they say have shares? - I refuse to beleive that average lower staffers would buy shares in this.

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Thanks for replying @Tannkd. I would caution against taking this kind of hearsay as investment advice. There isn’t any way that Cineworld is making 95% profit on anything … other than snacks:wink:

Their financials show that even pre-pandemic they struggled to make any money, they’re business model has them almost completely at the mercy of the film studios.

It’s key to separate the success, or lack thereof, from the experience of going to the cinema. There is a debate to be had about the future of cinema in the world of streaming but that conversation is entirely separate from the future of this company. Cineworld is increasingly troubled and in all likely good the current shareholders will be either wiped out or diluted massively.

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