Coronavirus and Stock Markets - Thoughts?

I imagine your friends are probably spot on sadly.

This is why trying to draw conclusions at the moment is almost pointless but interesting nonetheless.

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Useful summary of when covid government support stops:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-21/dates-for-your-diary-as-governments-face-fiscal-cliff-edges

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Sold out all my positions apart from some gold

:crazy_face:

Mask with the ability to inactivate the COVID-19 viruses on sale since April just received certification on the international norm ISO18184:2019

For sale across the UE

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Let’s see winners and losers from corona virus!

Buffett quote about you only only see who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out. Well we will see who has survived the last quarter best

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I’m hoping for UPS to surpass expectations with all of the online shopping going on.

The euro area economy is for once set for a sprightlier recovery from crisis than the U.S., thanks to starkly different responses to the coronavirus.

America’s failure to get a grip on the pandemic is putting the brakes on its rebound compared with Europe, where many former virus hot spots managed to resume economic activity without causing a similar surge in infections.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-26/europe-s-economy-set-to-outpace-u-s-in-upending-of-past-roles

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Imagine if someone had forecast this last year…

With weekly unemployment claims rising again in the US it just reiterated the point that there is no recovery alongside the virus.

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:grimacing: @hrochfor1

I want to to say brace for impact, but pricing and markets are so disconnected from the fundamentals that it’s just almost impossible to call what things will look like in the next 6 months, let alone in a year. Whether this will translate to further market dislocation in the short term remains to be seen but I’m not currently optimistic, though that could be down to it just being a Thursday.

I think one thing is becoming clear and that’s that there will be profound and fundamental changes to society and economies at large over the medium term as a result of the structural damage this pandemic is causing. Further, the rules based system is fragmenting at pace, global leadership is adrift and the seeds of nationalism sowed by the financial crisis in 2008 are being well and truly fed and watered by the current crisis. So rather than brace for impact, maybe it’s batten down the hatches as this going to a be a long game.

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I’m not so worried about stock markets as it is just becoming clear there are winners and losers and time will sort them. Bond markets really scare me though. With the latest Trump tweet it is looking increasingly likely that the US bond market may crash again given the uncertainty. If that happened and the risk free rate breaks down everything goes down.

I am worried about society and you hit the nail on the head with the amount of change we are going to see. I just don’t see how this could turn into a V shaped recovery now.

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It is getting weird(er)

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Welcome to liberal autocracy!

Agree, and that there will be winners and losers is of course a given but also consider the real world impact of the collapse of those corps once considered rock solid. Beyond the wider real economy damage, there will be significant impact on investors’ wealth who rely on IMs and asset managers to ensure they don’t live a life of penury in retirement. This will further erode social fabric as yet another promise of the model is broken.

Also agree, bond markets are of real concern, but again, it’s hard to know what’ll tip things over, as the last 6 weeks have shown, despite a borderline national psychosis gripping the US, things are for now holding up. And as for any powder left in the keg to respond meaningfully, that’s a whole other thread.

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I agree the collapse of these companies and the loss of jobs are going to set many communities back decades. Inequality is going to become much worse not just between the rich and the poor but between those in the thriving sectors and those in the dying.

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A tobacco company providing a cure for respiratory problem?..marvellous…

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Great stuff, hes sorted his hit list in one article lol. It does raise a point about taking opinions with a pinch of salt

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