🤿 Deep Dive 🤿 - Bushveld Minerals (BMN)

10% since I took a punt last week. Taking a beating. Still, fundamentals look good. When my ISA is sorted going to plough more money into and see it as a long-term moonshot.

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Such a bizarre stock. It seems the better they do and more promising they become the more the share price is held back.

Part of me thinks there’s some underhanded malevolence at hand here. Someone accumulating and regurgitating on the cheap.

If I’d had my bonus paid in by now, that’d be me. :joy:

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Codf - I tried posting a number of links to articles on the Bushveld Perspective that explain this but these have somehow been blocked by ‘community flags’ - can you let me know who to contact to get these links posted.

They’ll be reviewed when the community team reviews the flags. There’s been a number of shills trying to direct traffic and steer it to other sites, so people can be somewhat suspicious of links they don’t recognise.

I’ll pop a message over and see if I can get it looked at soon.

This was the link to www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/bushveld-energy-eskom-battery-mandate-2018-339

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There were a number of other links that described the historical context for the current SP movement

They are all very good reads interms of understanding the business in much more detail.

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The price movement is likely tied to a share overhang from the March 2018 placing (the final placing that the company undertook to buy out all the transitional partners of the original Vametco acquisition) for 150M shares at 10.3p.

That placing came at a period when the SP had just taken off from the 8p level that it had fallen to following the previous share overhang ascribed to Erongo and modelled on the Bushveld perspective here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/when-will-erongo-clear-255 and then here:- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/the-end-of-erongo-260

Those two articles go into quite some detail about trade analysis as a way of extracting the information to know when the 41M Erongo share block would be fully sold down. They are very interesting if you want to really understand the detail, if you just want to see the effect of a share sell overhang then the quick video here gives it to you in about a minute :- https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/slides/slide/bushveld-minerals-in-a-minute-50

Anyway that is the Erongo share overhang back in 2017/2018 - the current share overhang is harder to predict as it is not known what fraction of the 150M shares placed out in march 2018 may be looking to cash out with (at present) a straight 100% profit. It might be 50M, 75M or 100M. Anything less than 30M and I suspect that we’d have already cleared out that overhang following the peak at 50p in late 2018.

The basic upshot is that this share overhang could clear tomorrow, or it could go on for numerous months. If you are investing for the long term on the company fundamentals then now is the best time to take advantage of a temporarily suppressed share price. Wait any longer and the overhang may have cleared and the SP already taken off quickly as it did post-Erongo.

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Vanadium sneaks into the list.

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-25% so far on this stock in 3 weeks. Luckily I got a long term view. :joy:

Slides does make me think to find a good lithium miner - any one got any idea?

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The only pure lithium play on Freetrade is Bacanora I think. They have a good project in Sonora.

Worth reading up on.

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Have them on my shortlist but didn’t do my due diligence yet. Will have a look, thanks for reminding.

New RNS

Very interesting write-up

How is this different from say Sirius Minerals? I know they are different commodities but the type of company wise, is this better funded or at a different stage from Sirius?

Completely different stage. Sirius is still pre-production and pre-market really.

Bushveld are currently producing vanadium and exploring more uses for it.

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Thanks very naive question it may be, but why Bushveld’s market cap then is a lot smaller than Sirius Mineral, given former is already making revenue yet latter is still not?

In my opinion because it is vastly undervalued.

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Interesting. Similar finding is shown on Genuine Impact

may well become my first small-cap punt :smile: this kind of thing is always a bit random either way

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Ouuff… 42.9% down on this, the worse drop in my freetrade account.

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