Developing: UK PM No Confidence Vote

Theresa May to face vote of no confidence from Tory MPs. Market calls anybody? Cable? FTSE?

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I am quite certain she will easily win the vote. If she loses, it will be a catastrophe. No chance they will find a leader within a month or two, especially since no one will even want to take the position and ‘be the guy who left the EU’.

Also, if this happens, they will have to plead for the A50 extension, which will unlikely be granted due to the EU Parliament elections in May - no one will know what to do with the UK still being a member. Hence if she loses, a chain of negative events will flood the UK market and the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit will be aignificantly higher, which will likely lead to a more severe market correction.

There’s a significant number who want a no deal so voting her out would be a good solution for a lot of people

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I think a disaster is priced in, whether that’s a No Deal disaster or some other kind of disaster I’m not sure :smiley:

I am quite certain she will easily win the vote. If she loses, it will be a catastrophe. No chance they will find a leader within a month or two, especially since no one will even want to take the position and ‘be the guy who left the EU’. Also, if this happens, they will have to plead for the A50 extension, which will unlikely be granted due to the EU Parliament elections in May - no one will know what to do with the UK still being a member. Hence if she loses, a chain of negative events will flood the UK market and the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit will be aignificantly higher, which will likely lead to a more severe market correction.

Or we could just call the whole thing off, problem solved. My prediction is either no Brexit or the deal on offer. I don’t believe politicians are really stupid enough to bring on the economic armageddon of no deal. Probably they’ll opt for the worst of all worlds and delay Brexit rather than cancelling it, but hopefully then we can have a vote and put it behind us.

If May survives, we’ll get her deal, if she doesn’t, No Brexit. I can’t see parliament ever consenting to No deal and the chaos it would bring, they’d bring down the government first.

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I’m surprised that the FTSE is up today, rather than down. My assumption is that the market should only be pricing in the probability of Brexit, since it’s not 100% certain to happen. And more uncertainty because of today’s vote should be causing investors to sell, assuming that they see the increased uncertainty as increased risk & react with caution.

Does anyone have any theories about why the market’s up?

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Possibly the market believes May will win and so this evening’s vote will lead to greater certainty as the agreement on the table will go through.

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Whilst the agreement is not guaranteed to go through without the MP’s majority support, at least there will be a certainty in her responsibilities lasting for at least a year.

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True but I’d be surprised if her party would back her unless they were reasonably confident.

Waiting for Boris to do something Machiavellian at some stage, there’s still time

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It seems like every party except the Tories (even DUP) is very much against the agreement. Even if every conservative supports her and the deal, there is still a possibility of not securing 320 votes necessary :frowning:

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Honestly there’s no possible way of making the DUP happy unless there’s a hard Brexit, with a big wall around the border but freedom of movement of goods if they personally approve them.

The only thing a vote against it will achieve is a guaranteed hard Brexit.

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Here’s Reuter’s take -

I’ve moved today’s posts over to Justin’s topic - which was where I meant to post earlier :see_no_evil:

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Talking Machiavellian, there is a conspiracy(?) theory floating around saying May might have staged this because her chances of winning are high since there is no plausible opposition, therefore giving here a clear 12 month run.

I would not put it past her as she called the general election with a view she will win easy and destroy the opposition.

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I don’t think so, would have been better not to have happened and just got the Brexit agreement through. But she certainly didn’t go out of her way to stop it when it was looking doubtful that it would pass the commons. It will firm up her position

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Much as I dislike the party and May herself.
This seems especially brutal to put someone through. No matter how battle hardened you are it’s got to sting.

As long as we don’t end up with someone facile piece of self serving piece of shit like Boris or Rees-Mogg because of these ridiculous political games. If that happens then the country is even more screwed.

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