I tried.
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You are correct but there is no confusion except for with Richard. The real life situation which we have with the 2 shares is the situation you have as question one. Question 2 implies the first share isnāt random, itās a If then situation.
Hopefully you have cleared things up for him
The real life situation you have is as question 2.
The share you receive is random. The share your friend receives is also random.
The odds that your friend receives the same share as you is 1/90.
It would have been as question 1 if you had decided that you wanted Boohoo before either of you received the share. Before you had a share to compare then the odds of you both receiving specifically Boohoo would have been 1/8100.
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Good lord.
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Never seen so much talk of ball bags on this forum before 
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Richard is that you??
Question 2 implies you have already been given boohoo which is not the case.
Lol @MrChew nothing wrong with that!!
Go read this and then Iāll accept your apology:
If you still think I am wrong - so be it. 
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Did you read it?
It proves my point is correct!
We do care what the outcome of the first share is!!!
You canāt just put up a random post that supports your incorrect logic
When the second person reveals their share the first one has been already revealed. It doesnāt matter what the first one is. there is a 1/90 chance that when the second person reveals their share itās the same as the first one.
Or how about reading the answer on that link
The probability of rolling any number twice in a row is 1/6, because there are six ways to roll a specific number twice in a row (6 x 1/36). Another way to think about it is that you donāt care what the first number is, you just need the second number to match it (with probability 1/6 ).
Only in this case there are 90 ways you could get the same share twice, so the chances are 1 in (8100/90) which is 1 in 90
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Clearly you didnāt read it, or cannot read, Iām assuming the latter from your response. āAnother way to think about it is that you donāt care what the first number is, you just need the second number to match itā this is where you are going wrong. We DO care what the first share is! So your quote is irrelevant. Thanks for your much needed input
My last post on the matter, letās reduce it to a coin toss only two possible values for each coin
You could get:
Heads Heads
Heads Tails
Tails Tails
Tails Heads
Thereās only 4 outcomes and two of them have both coins coming up the same. So the probability of both being the same is 2/4 which cancels down to 1/2
it is not 1/4
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Omg are you actually serious Dave??? Please tell me you are not? I am really hoping you cannot see how illogical your conclusion is?
Just in case let me explain it. For your coin flip scenario you have created a matrix of outcomes. You are correct there are 4 possible outcomes however where you go wrong is trying to relate them both being the same ie 2/4 with our share scenario. HH doesnāt equal TT they are not the same.
What we would look for would be an outcome of HH(OR TT) which equals 1/4
I think that really should be your last post on the matter as you have demonstrated you cannot follow even your own logic
Afraid to say itās a lost causeā¦
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Hi 
Just to clear this up, the process of allocating free shares is completely random, and we might have anywhere between 2 and 50+ of the same stock to give away that week. So both referrer and referral may get the same stock.
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You are right, the probability of the HH outcome is 1/4. Also the probability for the TT outcome is 1/4. So, you having Heads both times is 1/4 and Tails both times is 1/4:
- P(HH) = 1/4
- P(TT) = 1/4
As you say, the outcome we are looking for is HH (OR TT). So:
P(HH) OR P(TT) = P(HH) + P(TT) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 2/4 = 1/2.
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