Freetrade Investor Business Update

That wouldnā€™t surprise me as the number of users shot up in 2020/21 around the meme stock era. Assume a large proportion of those people no longer invest and cashed out

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Yeah I was guessing that but unsure if I was wide of the mark. I never liked the free share stuff as many just wanted a free gift. Much better to incentivise long term investing like free ISA or something for 2 years so people are then in the ecosystem and FT donā€™t need to buy shares etc.

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Thatā€™s an interesting view and would have probably been better in fairness. Something like invest Ā£50 per month for 2 years and earn a free share worth Ā£100-500. Would have built good habits and probably helped retention. It may seem like a lot of free shares but the benefit to cost for FT would have probably been higher than free shares for people who wanted a free dinner

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Great update and good to see progress made on several fronts!

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In 2023ā€¦ Itā€™s not shared publicly in an article so I wonā€™t share it here, but check out the Q1 2024 Flows comment (calculate the net). Flows are off to a great start and Iā€™d imagine April will be one the biggest months of the year due to the tax year end so itā€™s looking good!

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Nice update. Positive EBITDA is good. I hope that continues in the same direction.
And this is against bad economic headwinds, so is really impressive.

The average AuA at Ā£6.4k is lower than I would have thought, I guess I am well above average!
(I have over Ā£100k managed by FT)
:grinning:

Looking forward to many new innovations in 2024!

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I hope so but I donā€™t think we can read much into how 1Q annualizes because FT have intentionally selected to report this quarter so we canā€™t just assume itā€™s typical.

I expect the tax year end is similarly strong and theyā€™ve been running promotions to get assets in, so my guess (75%) is that net inflows for 2024 < 4*1Q.

That said they have committed to report 2Q24 figures so that is a sign for continued optimism (or more cynically - they will likely be raising around then).

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@acamp Appreciate the update :ok_hand:t3:

What are the targets (by quarter and for the the full year) for 2024 in terms of revenue and EBITA so we know what we are shooting for :dart: You can then share how we are tracking against this in the Sept update.

Thanksā€¦.

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Agree with those points! Good so far would be the accurate way to describe it!

Flows will be correlated to marketing spend, which goes some way to explaining last year and means the rest of this year will be determined by how much they decide to advertise. So when we can see them spending on tube promotions this quarter whilst also turning a profit itā€™s positive all round.

All that being said itā€™s unlikely to be clear sailing ahead like in 2021, itā€™s just a hell of a lot better than the general feeling was before this update.

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I would like to see a lot more spent on advertising Football/Rugby etc. I donā€™t get the lack of advertising especially outside London.

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Well done freetrade, keep it coming itā€™s smooth sailing from here, donā€™t worry about the rough patches it will smooth out in the end.

I wish freetrade all the best in 2024 and I hope we all contuine to grow as one.

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I would say itā€™s because theyā€™ve done the maths and the cost per acquired customer comes out too high versus what those customers bring in.

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With this business update, what would people estimate to be the current share price?

Ā£4-5?

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I would concur :+1:

I think now they in the green they should focus on the development of the app and features and retaining the customers base as the competition is way ahead build meaningful features which are requested for a long time such as JISA and focus on the in house team not just the engineers but management too and improve the way the company is managed from last year.

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Well the figures fall short of the 2023 base case which raised at Ā£2.6 in a similar landscape, so I canā€™t really see it being far from that with whatā€™s been disclosed at this point.

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Unless thereā€™s a rising tideā€¦

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-15/revolut-valuation-raised-by-investor-schroders-as-fintech-fortunes-rebound

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Iā€™d say the Ā£2.6 SP was more based on the fairly grim market conditions and state of the business at the time, not based on future looking numbers. Progress has been made and Iā€™d say we are looking at Ā£4-5 now. Just my opinion of courseā€¦.

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Agreed, the sp at that time reflected market sentiment and overall trend for sector peers.

I remember Adam saying they had reviewed the trend lines of their peers and adjusted Freetrade valuation in line with that. I donā€™t recall him saying the SP has dropped because we are doing poorly.

If anything this latest release should be adding considerable confidence to potential investors/buyers etc. and in my own opinion should reflect a more confident share price of the suggested Ā£4-5.

Back when they offered an exit at Ā£3.70 no way was Freetrade in as strong as a position then as they are now - so if they want to offer me that exit again I am happy to explore that option. I like the product (I invested) but Iā€™m getting on now and really want to focus on a new career before I get too old and an exit would make that possible.

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