Theyāve said on the forum recently itās about double, so Iād expect around Ā£30m-Ā£40m, sorry donāt have any more than that. What we can guess so far:
Valuation Ā£36m
Share price probably a bit under 2x
EIS entitlement Ā£2m
Round cap at Ā£4m
Iām sure someone will let me know if I got any of these guesses wildly wrong.
I think itās very reasonable for everyone compared to many other startup valuations if it is around double last year (when they didnāt have an app, or any paying customers) - these valuations are very rough estimates based on uncertain projections at this stage, they donāt really matter because any projected gains are not real till you can actually buy and sell the companyās shares - it could still go to zero, though that is increasingly unlikely. Any investment now is probably for 5-10 years at least, so the most important thing is growth in user numbers and revenue.
I too would like to see the supporting documents before investing, but unfortunately it seems these will be released at the last minute via crowdcube.
Hi @Viktor, I just have a logistical question to ask. How are you planning to ensure everyone gains the 11:40 early access email/Crowdcube link at the approxā same time?
Slightly concerned some may receive the email link noticeably before/after others. I remember last year, there was a delay between the time we were expecting to receive access to the private period raise and when it actually came. This resulted in a few of us commenting in the community that we hadnāt receive the email/access, etc.
Comparative: āroughly doubleā makes value per user a bit higher than Robinhood when it raised at a later stage with 4m users. And someone mentioned BUX raising at a lower value/user but I canāt find any details on that one.
By the way I thought only existing investors get the link at 11:40. Then the community gets the link at 12:00. Finally it opens up for everyone a day later.
Itās the ācommunityā I.e everyone signed up for updates, forum members, Freetrade users
Crowdfunding will take place on Thursday, April 25 at 12 PM UK time via Crowdcube. Community members will receive a head start link 20 minutes before 12 PM to give them a head start before the round is available for everyone to take part in.
To ensure our loyal community members have an opportunity to invest, weāll give you an early head start by emailing you a link at 11:40, 20 minutes before the round opens to everyone. Those first 20 minutes of the round will effectively be in private mode, only accessible to our customers, community and people who signed up to our mailing list. Get on the mailing list by adding your email address on the Freetrade website.
Might skip it because of the 1.5% charge as it is. Unlikely Iāll invest without EIS relief.
I think itās very hard to compare valuations (growth is more important than absolute user nos for example and target markets vary as much as business plans). I would not compare with BUX (Iād value them lower personally as they meddle with CFDs which are now heavily regulated), to quote their website:
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
So Iām not too worried about the valuation of Freetrade in this round, as long as it is a little up indicating optimism, and not outlandish, because valuations at early stages are speculative, based on private numbers we wonāt be privvy to, and highly contingent on future plans. It seems reasonable to me.
So imagine a link will be sent today (?) which will go live at 11:40 tomorrow
That would be nice. Personally I think in terms of the link to previous investors it should be at least an hour before so we donāt have this concern over links, and ideally days so that people have some time to digest docs and consider - they could just cap the initial part of the round to Ā£1m or something, then open it up for further investment to the public to give everyone a chance. However there is a cool-off period anyway as Adam noted, so you can always put in what you think initially and then cancel it if you change your mind.
I think it makes sense because Freetrade is at an earlier stage the user growth is far higher week on week than a more mature competitor. It only just released Android and invited itās whole waitlist. It now has 25k+ users and should around 30k by the end of the weekā¦
The Bux round wasnāt great, they raised less than they wanted. Whereas Freetrade will raise the maximum it can in a very short amount of time. I think theyāre on a different trajectory.
Agree @kenny that valuations are difficult and @Rob14 that the trajectory is good. Looking forward to reading something about revenue/users/metrics tomorrow (unless any of that was disclosed last night?)
With the pre-money val of Ā£36MM (see latest mail) versus last round premoney Ā£18MM + Ā±3MM raised, would the theoretical value of previous round shares be approx. x1.7? (Ā£36MM/Ā£21MM)
It sounds like what I said came across a little differently!
We are actively planning to expand into a Northern European market as a first step. We will use this market as the testing ground to refine our expansion playbook. Core to how we expand is making Freetrade really local to these markets, which is work that is more in the background and you may not see (other than local waitlists before we launch).
We already have quite a bit of expertise on the team when it comes to market expansion. @Gemhappe for example worked on expansion projects at Snap and Google, so did I, and our new growth lead arrived from Uber, and heās quite experienced with expansion initiatives.
@Diversify Thanks for raising it, as weāve been already looking into ideas! The above from @rod sounds good, @Freetrade_Team1 will post the link here on the forum at 11:40 AM tomorrow!
