Global Demand


This is a positive fact and will have great impact.
However, even with falling birth rates, global population should peak at ca. 11 billion in 2100. That’s enough demand growth for our lifetimes. The other side of demand growth is rising income, which should be ongoing in many parts of the developing world.

It would arguably be more useful to see a graph of population, as opposed to growth rate. I think most people when they look at this can’t do the integration in their head.

Some of the most recent have the population peaking at 8.3 billion in the next decade and then declining. The UN has suggested China may be only 600 million people by 2100.

Where do you get those numbers from? This seems absurd.

On the topic I suggest the Ted talks by Hans Rosling or to read his book Factfulness

Latest UN report on population. There was an appendix addressing the anomalies in forecast rising birth rates and what would happen if they did not increase. A guy called Darrel Bricker also dissected the data very well too.

Have a read of ‘Factfulness’, brilliant book by Hans Rosling. Population should plateau around 11 billion.

Yes I’ve read it. His number comes from the UN models which have been shockingly right so far. However, they assume birth rates will rise in almost every country in about 10 years which is looking less and less likely. It looks like urbanisation has driven down the birth rates faster than we could have imagined.

Could you please link that report here? Since it seems to clash with the content on their official website.

Slowing growth is still growth.

The chart is showing births per 1000. And naturally even if births stay at their current rate in terms of births per year, this is going to drop per 1000 as the population grows.

If you’re worried about slow growth just have 10 kids :joy:

I will dig it out. What is on their website is only the ‘middle scenario’. The other end shows a population of 15-20 billion.