iOS app just out on the App Store now. 
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I really want to like this one and invest, but the valuation seems off for where they are, their forecast trajectory seems optimistic at best, and the cheerleading in the discussion is too over the top.
I am torn.
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They choose an odd selection of screen shots for the App Store - basically the login & sign up screen shots rather than the main user screens.
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I was surprised this came out it so quickly. Just had a quick look, and I think they only have those on boarding screens, it is not the full app yet just the on boarding process. Apparently there will be more on the 16th.
Ha - that’s just what I’m doing too. My gut said no a few weeks back, but I have to admit that I’m impressed by the speed at which they’ve got the £10 accounts open and the Android/iOS apps up for download. The investor communication has been pretty good too both in terms of depth and speed of response.
Plus, if the evaluation has come down, then I’m potentially interested. I said above that the initial valuation was ridiculous, but I can’t remember what it was off the top of my head.
The slight alarm bells for me is that I can’t help but feel that there are a lot of shills in the discussions: there are lots of “wow this is amazing,” “have I really made 10x in just six months?” etc etc
Plus, as has been said above, there seems to be a sense of uncertainty around the raise. They raised £400k pretty quickly, but half of that came from a single investment and from then on it’s just been ticking along pretty slowly. A hundred quid here, fifty quid there …
Anyway, all in all, I think I find myself leaning towards making a small bet on this.
Looks like they’ve hit their funding target.
Well what do I know? They’re over-funding now
It must have been a one off investor, which again raises suspicion. I want to believe in this, but it is just so difficult!
Taken a small punt on this, the same as I did with Freetrade a couple of years ago!
Also taken a small punt in Nanusens, seems interesting
Done the same here too
Going to meet the founder and CEO of MarkersFlow this week - see the white of the eyes before I invest.
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Keep us updated mate! Pull some Derren Brown mind tricks to get truth…or just chat to him 
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@Marsares I have read your comments on the pledge discussion. Good probing questions, but Tom always has an answer.
It would be interesting to hear your thoughts once to you have met face to face. I wish I had the time to drop in to quiz him myself, but it is far from convenient!
When are you dropping by?
Tomorrow 5pm, just confirmed with him.
I really like what they are doing and Tom has answered my questions well so far, but their portfolio returns and business plan forecasts seem too good to be true.
I am either a sucker or miss the opportunity of a lifetime.
I think so too, so my question to them would be: if you think you have a machine that can reliably make 25%, why bother with all the hassle (crowdfunding, selling software, running a co, regulatory)? - instead just crank the handle and make money!
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I’m guessing by managing other people’s money they can get money from fees, adding to their pot?!
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I personally think it would be neither - the most likely outcomes to me seem to be in the 0x - 10x range return over 5-10 years or so.
I doubt they are a fraud, but their estimates based on back-testing may well prove to be wildly optimistic, and that’s ok. I do think their business plan is far too optimistic also, but we’ll see. Neither form of optimism is fatal but it’s best to take most business plans for small businesses with a pinch of salt.
Let us know how you get on in any case.
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So I met their CEO for two hours and we had a totally riveting discussion where he was completely transparent, showed me their models and forecasts, discussed progress whilst mentioning the names of companies their are in detailed discussions with and underpinned it with names and showed me lengthy email trails and other conversations.
If it’s a hustle, it’s the most elaborate one I have seen in my life.
He also explained how their model differs from traditional asset management - to grossly simplify, they use AI driven factor analysis to distill buy and sell signals, which they then action. But there is a lot more to it which is difficult to explain, but they have clearly thought this through - they use put and hold options, which asset management does not do. In that sense, they are almost more akin to investment banking than asset management, at least, in my simple mind.
It also needs to be said that whilst they advertise their returns, they did not always outperform the market and underperformed at times, although generally they outperform but not always with the stellar numbers that everyone seems to latch onto.
They are in advanced discussions with IFAs and family offices, and are getting major traction there. D2C is in its infancy, and the £10 entry point will be a game changer for them, but he accepts that there is a challenge getting a foot in the door with people as these days they can choose from so many investment options. Virality is key here and they are discussing schemes to generate this through incentivisation, and I have seen this work really well with other startups. They are also in the process of creating a community of investors and users to help with all this.
Their current round has two large investors who contributed c£350k of the total amount raised. They are previous investors and also users of their platform - both HNW individuals.
With hindsight, he admitted that many mistakes were made with the crowdfunding round and that they should have gotten the app live first.
However, he answered all my questions in detail and, although I wouldn’t wish to advise anyone, he convinced me personally to become an investor. Yes, their business plan seems optimistic, but their product seems sound and differentiated and their are getting traction, which I was worried about. Like Kenny said, most startup business plans you have to take with a pinch of salt anyways - its like you aim for the moon, and you may end up somewhere half way - but that still is a damn long distance from where you started.
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Another re-evaluation of company value.
Now down to £9.5m, having started at £28m and then initially come down to £18m.
That’s a pretty hefty drop.
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Ouch. It did seem overvalued to me initially (I think they had something like 10x gain on their previous valuation, which was way overvalued IMO for the stage they’re at).
In theory it’s better for investors in this round, but this does raise questions for me about their competence - revising the valuation twice during a fundraise (and extending the fundraise). Sounds like they have been in discussions they hoped to complete by now, and have done it to get a larger investor on board, but they’d have been better to do that separately from the crowdcube round IMO when they have shown a bit more growth. I wonder why they did it this way?
I’ve signed up and put £100 into their new platform just to try it out, will report back in a few months when I have tried it for a while.