Yeah it’s pulled back… To where it was Monday 
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highly volatile stock, beware. Long term I’m absolutely cool, but is easy, if you have 0 shares now, to buy some and be at a 30% loss in no time. In lastmonths with BTC ranging $50k to $70k my account was wildly swinging from 70% profit, to -20% loss… So keep that in mind. I bought today more shares at $480 en then dropped to $400 
IMHO these 30% drops are the perfect time to buy. But each one has to do their own research and check their gut feeling. I’ve been in BTC for a while and researched a bit, I have diamond hands… so I just feel almost nothing, when I see these drops, and with 100% up rallies, I just fell ok, this is what what’s bound to happen,when there’s a 100% rally. But that’s just me. I understand this is not an asset for everybody,it’s kind of BTC 3x leveraged
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Yes, I saw something about Citron research shorting it. Same happened few months ago, some other hedge fund shorted it. I’m cool with that, as Saylor says, this volatility can be used to make profit both ways. IMHO, without a huge knowledge about this and deep pockets to cover any margin call, shorting this for a trade is quite dangerous, and shorting it “because NAV premium must go back to 1” is just suicidal.But I’m cool with them, smart guys making a 50% profit in a few days shorting it. Must like smoking crack cocaine or heroin. Probably a great “adrenaline high” feeling, but I’d better not try it, lol. There are of course smart short set ups, buyers of convertible bonds or some other instruments I barely understand, can short the stock as a hedge of long BTC positions, but that’s not for me
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What is clear: Saylor is reliable a out his playbook, and will keep repeaging the same strategy over and over:
Total Cost Basis: $16.518B
Unrealized P/L: +$15.880B
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Nice !
Saylor just said in a recent interview that at the minute he’s making about 500m a month or something. He’s about to take over the convertible bond market. This should never trade anywhere near NAV, it’s too reflexive as well. All the ETF inclusions means he will just tap the atm and keep buying more. Nothing like this has ever been seen before.
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Hello everyone,
I’ve been thinking of MSTR valuation recently and since Michael Saylor very often says he adopted the bitcoin standard for the company, maybe it’s time we look at MSTR as if the world has already adopted bitcoin as a unit of account.
In the tradfi world we look at P/E ratios of the companies. A few examples of the current valuations:
+--------+-----------+--------------------------------------+
| TICKER | P/E ratio | |
+--------+-----------+--------------------------------------+
| BRK-B | 11.9 | (Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway) |
| AAPL | 34.7 | |
| NVDA | 76.8 | |
| TSLA | 99.6 | |
| AMZN | 101.2 | |
+--------+-----------+--------------------------------------+
The P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the current share price by the EPS (Earnings Per Share).
Normally to get the EPS we measure how many dollars a company made during a period of selling their goods and services.
Since MSTR is on “bitcoin standard” we should flip it around, and we assume MSTR is trading US dollars, convertible bonds, etc. and their income is measured in BTC, not USD (that’s how we would see it if the BTC would be already a unit of account.)
So from this perspective our earnings would be calculated like this:
- amount of BTC held on 1st Jan 2024:
₿189,150.00 - amount of BTC held on 31st Dec 2024:
₿331,200.00(we know already it will be more as Saylor is buying more right now) - earnings:
₿331,200.00 - ₿189,150.00 = ₿142,050.00 #of shares outstanding:224,675,000₿ EPS(number ofBTCearned per share during 2024):142,050.00/224,675,000 = ₿0.00063224657
So our “bitcoin standard” EPS (₿EPS) is ₿0.00063224657
Now we need to convert it back to USD to be able to calculate the P/E ratio. This is how it looks like for various BTC prices:
+---------------+--------------+----------------+
| Price of BTC | ₿ EPS | EPS (USD) |
+---------------+--------------+----------------+
| $ 98,452.34 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 62.25 |
| $ 100,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 63.22 |
| $ 120,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 75.87 |
| $ 150,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 94.84 |
| $ 180,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 113.80 |
| $ 200,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 126.45 |
| $ 250,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 158.06 |
| $ 700,000.00 | ₿0.000632247 | $ 442.57 |
+---------------+--------------+----------------+
So this gives the current P/E ratio of $397.28 / $62.25 = 6.38. Quite low compared to other companies.
He is the theoretical price of MSTR (for various BTC prices), if it was valued at the P/E ratios of the previously mentioned companies, ie. Berkshire, Apple, Nvidia, etc.
+--------------------+--------------+---------------+---------------+---------------+
| Company: | BRK-B | AAPL | NVDA | TSLA |
+--------------------+--------------+---------------+---------------+---------------+
| P/E ratio: | 11.9 | 34.7 | 76.8 | 99.6 |
+--------------------+--------------+---------------+---------------+---------------+
| BTC Price 98452.34 | $ 740.73 | $ 2,159.94 | $ 4,780.50 | $ 6,199.72 |
| BTC Price 100000 | $ 752.37 | $ 2,193.90 | $ 4,855.65 | $ 6,297.18 |
| BTC Price 120000 | $ 902.85 | $ 2,632.67 | $ 5,826.78 | $ 7,556.61 |
| BTC Price 150000 | $ 1,128.56 | $ 3,290.84 | $ 7,283.48 | $ 9,445.76 |
| BTC Price 180000 | $ 1,354.27 | $ 3,949.01 | $ 8,740.18 | $ 11,334.92 |
| BTC Price 200000 | $ 1,504.75 | $ 4,387.79 | $ 9,711.31 | $ 12,594.35 |
| BTC Price 250000 | $ 1,880.93 | $ 5,484.74 | $ 12,139.13 | $ 15,742.94 |
| BTC Price 700000 | $ 5,266.61 | $ 15,357.27 | $ 33,989.58 | $ 44,080.23 |
+--------------------+--------------+---------------+---------------+---------------+
I am not quite sure how to account here for the issued convertibles.
Here is the spreadsheet with the model: MSTR ₿ P/E model.xlsx - Google Sheets (you can make a copy and run your own numbers).
Anyone any thoughts?
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Where do we see Bitcoin going to from here? Surely it consolidates before the next run higher 
.
Might be worth a small amount in MSTR just to cover Bitcoin £1m 
.
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This isn’t earning anything it’s a loss making wrapper around $30bn of BTC at a price tag of $85bn.
They are just taking investor’s money to buy more bitcoin, but you can do that anyway without the wild mark-up. If you are bullish on bitcoin why settle for ~half?
Someone brave enough to take on the memestock risk will make a fortune on the obvious arb here.
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If you are bullish on bitcoin why settle for ~half?
If you are a fan of mNAV = 1 and MSTR is just and ETF, then you would still pay more than NAV in certain situations. Try buying the IBIT in 401k, or in the “crypto hub” that Rishi promised to create in the UK, or if you’re an insurance company like Alianz and would not get credit for it, or if your charter prevents you from holding BTC directly.
Regarding making money: If BTC is money (remember GBP or USD is not money, just a currency) then making additional bitcoin per share is making money.
In fiat world increasing USD held in the balance sheet is called making money.
If we assume BTC standard, then increasing BTC on the balance sheet is called making money.
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Of course they are not money - just useful currencies.
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BTC isn’t useful given it has minimal real world utility and is used as an investment tool by the vast majority of people.
Holding GBP/USD on a balance sheet is making money and in turn makes money via interest or investments. You could hold all the BTC you want on your balance sheet, it won’t make money (other than improving in value which undermines its utility further)
Isn’t BTCs value it’s finite supply, potential for currency glory status and finally it’s cult like following which encompasses the prior pair? Otherwise if there is no end game, what on earth is the point?
Like it or not, it’s here to stay and with that comes value.
However, currently there is no use case, at all and there lies the risk of the game.
All IMO and I have a tiny piece of exposure via MSTR, DAGB and Ether.
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What?
“Money is any item or verifiable record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts, such as taxes, in a particular country or socio-economic context.”
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I’ll put it out there…I wouldn’t touch MSTR with a barge pole.
No matter how much people try shoving down my throat how amazing BTC is and how Saylor is the second coming. (Which is what all BTC and MSTR holders seem to spend their days doing).
Something stinks about it. It’s not a risk I need or desire to take.
If I’m wrong, so be it.
Oh thank God you’ve finally told us what you think!!
We’ll all sleep sound tonight now that you’ve shared your opinion.
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You know what the point of a forum is right?
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are they where random nobodies on the internet shake their fists at the sky and rant about how Bitcoin is a scam?