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Quite an insightful analysis from BBC. Although they list numerous potential competitors, I think Disney is the only one that is the most relevant and dangerous (frankly, YouTube and Twitch are completely different to TV shows and movies).

With their huge cash pile, controlling interest of Hulu and diverse revenue channels that can absorb initial losses, Disney is very likely to outperform Netflix in long run.

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Disney is also hoovering up all the major franchises, they have all ther in-house ones, Star Wars, and Marvel. They’ll pick up more over the next few years.

They also protect their IP aggressively, hence Micky Mouse not making it to the public domain.

Netflix on the other hand isn’t fairing so well in creating in-house content, but they are very good at spotting and licensing external content.

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Just from the amount of properties they hold rights over I think Disney is a major threat to Netflix.
I do love that with the Fox acquisition, Alien is now technically a Disney film.

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I’d seriously consider Disney just for the new Loki series. Never been bothered about Netflix.

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Netflix will pay around $100 million to continue licensing “Friends” from its owner, WarnerMedia. It’s a significant jump from the $30 million a year it previously paid to stream the show.

image

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Some context from the former head of Amazon Studios

https://twitter.com/ballmatthew/status/1069991834426990592?s=21

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I suspect similar price increases will follow in the UK!

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That seems like a fairly big subscription price increase (up to 18%) to me.

But apparently the market’s ok with it.

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Netflix are increasing their subscriptions again, which might prove to be a bad move considering the rising rivals. In the next couple years customers will be deciding if their subscription is worth it for Netflix’s own content.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/may/30/netflix-to-raise-prices-for-uk-subscribers

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We’ll all keep paying for Netflix, I guarantee it.

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Streaming firm says increases will let it spend more on shows as it looks to see off Disney+

Also Netflix, “Three seasons and GTFO” :expressionless:

I know plenty of people who are now a bit wary about getting invested in Netflix programming because of the above phenomenon. For some of them, this may be the point they realise they know how to quit.

I just got the email :sweat_smile:

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To be honest, Netflix does not really deliver like it used to for me. I watch the odd show on there, but find myself using Prime and Now more regularly. It is useful that my parents pay for Now and my brother pays for Prime meaning we spread the costs amongst ourselves (shared accounts).

Stranger Things, Archer, QB1 and Last Chance U keep the subscription alive! Netflix is churning out some dross though! Sabrina S1 was ok but totally ruined in S2 for me. Such a shame!

A good little earner for some invested in it though I have no doubt! :money_mouth_face::chart_with_upwards_trend:

I actually cancelled mine. When I did the maths I was better off buying the things I really wanted. Although that’s proved to be more difficult for Stranger Things!

Stranger things next generation Goonies! Season 3 has started really strong to :facepunch:t2:

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Not sure the market’s ok with the price increase any more, now that the Q2 2019 numbers came in - horrible miss on user growth and stock went down ~10%.

“Our missed forecast was across all regions, but slightly more so in regions with price increases. We don’t believe competition was a factor since there wasn’t a material change in the competitive landscape during Q2, and competitive intensity and our penetration is varied across regions (while our over-forecast was in every region). Rather, we think Q2’s content slate drove less growth in paid net adds than we anticipated. Additionally, Q1 was so large for us (9.6m net adds), there may have been more pull-forward effect than we realized.”

(Or the market didn’t like that there wasn’t much new Nflx content in Q2, who knows.) I thought this quick analysis interesting.

Interesting the market was not interested in Netflix Paid Subscribers ( in Millions)
2019 (Q2): 152
2018: 139
2017: 118
2016: 94
2015: 75
2014: 57
2013: 44
2012: 33
2011: 24
2010: 20

Could be because the market anticipates a soon-to-be-reached demand capacity which could lead to growth stagnation. That scenario would be very unfavourable considering their P/E of 115.

I remember the “experts” on Bloomberg TV not being sure about the first few Netflix Originals (House of Cards, Orange is the New Black)—that’s when paid sub was in mid 20s @RebelAllocator.

Should cinema operators rework their business models or even cannibalise it to survive, follow Blockbuster or kind of become like Oracle—that is, irrelevant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/netflixs-the-irishman-wont-be-shown-at-most-major-theaters.htm

Netflix has repeatedly clashed with theater chains over its decision to break with theatrical release tradition. Hollywood studios, as well as rival streaming platform Amazon, have adopted a 90-day theatrical release window, which requires them to run the film for that time period before releasing it on video on demand or on a streaming service’s site or app.

Netflix proposed a 30-day window before its conversations with theater chains ended, according to The Hollywood Reporter. Additionally, Scorsese and members of Netflix’s top brass approached theaters about reaching a deal.l

Trailer to the Irishman here:

US & Canada cinema attendance (from Statista):

AMC on a pre-market analyst call also announced that it is experimenting with dynamic pricing for high-demand Hollywood tentpole movies.

CEO Adam Aron told analysts that a pilot program at 30 AMC theaters in four cities on Aug. 2 began test-marketing a 50 cent, $1 and $1.50 per-ticket surcharge “for a handful of high demand blockbusters.” Aron argued the exhibition industry has talked about the controversial practice of dynamic pricing for select Hollywood titles, and his company was moving ahead with test marketing.

AMC Theatres share price (max):

Netflix share price (max):

Box office doing alright while attendance in North America is down (2017):

Apple is going after Netflix.

Apple TV+ to launch 1 Nov at only $ 4.99 a month.

If you buy a new Mac, iPhone, iPad, they will come with a 1-year Apple TV+ subscription.