Netflix security analysis - Q2 2018


(Viktor) #22

That reminds me of the Peter Thiel quote: “Poor distribution—not product—is the number one cause of failure”

I agree - distribution is an existential issue.

Me too, the US stocks can’t come soon enough into :freetrade: ! :slight_smile:


#23

Disney earnings today. May provide some interesting insight into how well (or not well) they’re adapting to a streaming focused media climate.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-walt-disney-q3-18-earnings-conference-call-at-430-pm-et-20180807-00223


(Vladislav Kozub) #24

40% operational profit growth alone looks marvelous! And that is with P/E of just under 20.

This will be a very interesting report to look at later

Edit: Okay, it is only about 10% if take “Trump Tax Reform” out of the equation.


(Alex Sherwood) #25

Here’s a bit of curveball :grin: also, one billion’s pretty good going for a seed round :eyes:


(Alex Sherwood) #26

Another surprising? move from Amazon - killing the cinema by streaming films to users in their homes, while potentially running a cinema chain -

although the story does list some pretty good reasons why this makes sense..

Funnily enough Netflix’s CEO was asked about whether he’d consider running cinemas at last year’s Recode Code Conference, with the person asking the question comparing that move to Amazon opening retail book stores & his response was a pretty scathing “no”.

So..will Amazon do this?


(Vladislav Kozub) #27

Amazon doess not surprise me anymore. They will do everything sooner or later, resemling Umbrella Corporation from Resident Evil one day :grin:


(Alex Sherwood) #28

I feel like that too, it seems like even completely separate industries (e.g. banking & insurance) are expecting that Amazon’s going to move in & take over.

But I’ve always thought that being focused - like Apple - is good & that there’s only so many things that one company can do well. That doesn’t seem to be the case with Amazon at the moment :sweat_smile:


#29

“Alexa, where is the red keycard?”


#30

To be fair, Apple do have some range too - less so now but iTunes and a lot of their software were huge a few years ago.

Trying to get back into services too. But it’s not quite the diversity of Amazon or google.

This is a bit of a sideways thought but wonder if there’s something there around Apple’s obsession with design - which I suspect is hugely time consuming - while Amazon just seem to focus on problem solving without fretting too much about aesthetics or luxury experience.


#31

I wonder if they plan on using AI to gauge audience responses to films? Then feeding that back into the shows they purchase or make for Prime.

Side note, personally would love to see a second season of Mad Dogs.


(Alex Sherwood) #32

#33

Bring on the US stocks I say :no_good_man:


(Vladislav Kozub) #34

Every time I still have doubts about Netflix, it brings good news :expressionless:


#35

Apparently, licensed content makes up 80% of what people watch on Netflix & Disney really could makes waves in the streaming space.


(Emma) #36

Interesting BBC piece about the effect Disney’s streaming service (and others) could have on Netflix


(Vladislav Kozub) #37

Quite an insightful analysis from BBC. Although they list numerous potential competitors, I think Disney is the only one that is the most relevant and dangerous (frankly, YouTube and Twitch are completely different to TV shows and movies).

With their huge cash pile, controlling interest of Hulu and diverse revenue channels that can absorb initial losses, Disney is very likely to outperform Netflix in long run.


#38

Disney is also hoovering up all the major franchises, they have all ther in-house ones, Star Wars, and Marvel. They’ll pick up more over the next few years.

They also protect their IP aggressively, hence Micky Mouse not making it to the public domain.

Netflix on the other hand isn’t fairing so well in creating in-house content, but they are very good at spotting and licensing external content.


(Chris) #39

Just from the amount of properties they hold rights over I think Disney is a major threat to Netflix.
I do love that with the Fox acquisition, Alien is now technically a Disney film.


(Emma) #40

I’d seriously consider Disney just for the new Loki series. Never been bothered about Netflix.


#41

Netflix will pay around $100 million to continue licensing “Friends” from its owner, WarnerMedia. It’s a significant jump from the $30 million a year it previously paid to stream the show.

image