Oatly - OTLY

Can we get this on FT as soon as it’s announced please :pray:.

I’m requesting it ahead of the IPO to hopefully mitigate the usual delay experienced in seeing it in FT.

Hey Kam, yes, we are preparing for the $OTLY IPO and hope to have it available immediately.

Though there have been a couple of delays with smaller IPOs in the last week or two, we’ve added major IPOs like Airbnb, Coinbase etc within minutes of them becoming available on the secondary market.

And we’ll aim to do the same next week for Oatly, Squarespace and Ziprecruiter.

Here’s our recent Oatly preview ICYMI:

And here’s a refresher for anyone reading who’s not familiar with the reasons that IPOs aren’t available until a few hours after the market opens:

4 Likes

@Freetrade_Team you’ve clearly had your weetabix this morning.

Was going to jump in and say that as far as I was aware FT had nailed the IPO launches for the last few months at least. AirBnb, Rblx & Coin to name but a few were live in the prior to launch day.

1 Like

Oatly is not profitable. Losses widened to $60.4 million in 2020 from $35.6 million in losses in 2019. Revenue more than doubled, to nearly $421.4 million. It had 792 employees in 2020.

On Tuesday, Oatly set terms for its initial public offering. The Swedish company is offering about 84.4 million American depositary shares at $15 to $17 each. Each ADS represents one ordinary share. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker OTLY.

Last round in July was at a valuation of $2b. So its gone from a P/S of 10 to almost 24.

From S1:

image

image

image

image

Has a 30.7% gross margin. Spent $13.7m on branding in 2020. If you strip that and interest (which will be lowered using proceeds) its almost EBITDA breakeven.

I’ll buy at $4b.

3 Likes

image

I feel like this is especially true in recent times and with high profile loss making companies.

Also I managed to snag some reduced 10p hemp milk in Morrisons a couple of weeks ago - that was pretty good!

7 Likes

I’m pretty sure there are better companies for milk alternative than this one. Someone mentioned before it’s literally oat flavoured water… :-1:t2::-1:t2: One of the worst ingredient list and gaining bad press because of that. Not sure how far this may affect the stock itself… But shouldn’t be reputation also considered when buying?

What’s wrong with the ingredients?

image

I’m not expecting the stock to be good value at IPO, but the product is great and has a good reputation.

1 Like

A quick Google search will tell you exactly what’s wrong with the ingredients and why there is a fair backlash already brewing.

Still better than drinking dairy imo

2 Likes

This guys sure done his research. It’s genuinely stopped me in my tracks on Oatly plant based milks

1 Like

I’m sure that’s the perception they were aiming for.

Don’t be put off by that, it’s a terrible piece. I think it is written to intentionally mislead the casual reader into thinking that Oatly is comparable to coke in terms of sugars and other unhealthy foods, which is patently untrue.

Unless you have a serious health condition or are drinking gallons of it you really have nothing to worry about, certainly not compared to alternatives.

I work in a supermarket and Oatly is by far the best selling dairy alternative, although there are more and more competitors coming to market.

It’s interesting really. The most well regarded small local chain of coffee shops where I live advertises that it uses Oatly. I’m sitting in a popular vegan cafe and they use Oatly. This is entirely anecdotal but they seem to have the mindshare to me among whatever is called the hipster culture now. Whether that converts into a buy is another question as I’m a newbie to investing.

It’s called hype and good PR. You can even spot silly bilboards around the town. How can a supermarket’s version become more popular than that without all this glliter? Only conscious customers will choose anything but Outly. BTW Starbucks use Alpro Barista and it’s still better.

Minor Figures is a great UK brand to use, my local coffee shop in Nottingham uses it

1 Like

Archival of opinion piece:

https://archive.md/2021.11.22-074940/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/11/21/plant-based-industry-fails-put-meat-bone/

Just saw an article about Oatly greenwashing and their ads being banned in UK:

I’m glad I had a very suspicious opinion toward this stock :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: