[On :freetrade:] Apple - AAPL :iPhone:

Is that graph showing us the number of trades (buys and sells), or the gross, or net value of trades, or what @sampoullain?

TSLA is -30% in 2019, AAPL +36%. One of them has always felt like a long shot, the other like a dividend stock that’s so safe it’s practically a bond.

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They wouldn’t buy Spotify, I think - they got their own platform and it’s quite good:


(Source - https://www.statista.com/chart/8399/spotify-apple-music-paid-subscribers/)

Peloton costs $2k at least + $3k in the first year in total with the subscription servce, etc. How scalable is it? I’m sure Apple would want to slide their software into Pelotons though, because data is the oil in this century. Also, many people can afford Apple Watch - the best selling high-margin smart watch - and these people don’t even have to like fitness.

Apple may be going after Tile - the maker of stuff trackers (link) with Apple Tag:


I think the idea of Tile is great but Tile’s management missed its opportunity (could’ve been IPOing this year?). The business idea is still extremely great, especially if you travel a lot. Years ago, I successfully tracked my bag somewhere on the East Coast once - it worked better than the airline’s lost luggage system.

In defence of :green_apple::

  • Apple Watch is a billion dollar+ business on its own - wearables, home, accessories brought USD 5.5 billion in sales in the last quarter.

Apple Watch is the best selling smart watch - period.

  • “Services” is the second largest business after iPhone - USD 11.5 billion in revenue in the last quarter.

(Source - 10Q)

You can list Apple’s iPad on NASDAQ and it’d be a “better” tech company than any of the newcomers who have iPOed recently.

The iPhone echosystem lock-in is also very strong - it’s hard for people to leave iPhone, even if you switch to Google Pixel with Android 10 (different UI, lack of iMessage, etc).

The differences between the two OSs are becoming small - they are all just copying each other.

Android Studio wants to be more like X Code - if you’re a developer. Kotlin vs Swift.

Never thought I’d see so many people with pricey iPhone X after it was announced a couple of years ago. Apple are masters of distorting reality.


(Source - 10Q)

Now, :bug::bug::bug::green_apple::

The average phone upgrade cycle is changing not in phone-makers’ favour - definitely a concern for Apple’s largest segment (the iPhone):


(Source - https://ting.com/blog/phone-upgrade-cycle-survey-results/)

But Apple has managed to convince the world that paying $1000+ for something we used to pay half that is OK.

Compared to Samsung, Apple is in a league of its own in terms of brand perception. They know how to make psychology work in their favour.

And they know how to manage finances - borrowing at ultra low rates to fund dividends while minimising taxes thanks to the cheap debt.

My concern is what can the ex-COO and now CEO Tim Cook do with innovation, now that Sir Jonny Ive has left and many others have too in the past (one of the chief designers of iPod/iPhone left and founded Nest which was bought by Google).

Another elephant in the room is the state of machine learning (a subset of AI or whatever you want to call it):

Siri is :poop:.

Apple bought Siri, popularised the voice assistant thingy, and then god knows what happened. Actually, someone did some research:

And search is everything - ask Amazon, Microsoft (with Microsoft Search and the Alexa tie-up), and the leader - Google (Assistant). They managed to hire a top AI person from the GOOG but you can’t rebuild an AI platform and catch up with Amazon in 1 or even 2 years while the rest of the leading pack are also moving.

Also, Microsoft and its partners have finally started making cheaper and better laptops.

Macs are Apple’s 3rd largest business by revenue after iPhone and Services.

Windows 10 is quite great - it does the job. And, if you like Linux, side-load the open-source OS onto your sleek Acer or HP laptop and it’s still cheaper than a Macbook Pro. If you read some hardware or domain-specific forums, many people are discussing how upgrading to Win10 machines from old MacPros was OK + they saved some money.

The upgrade cycle for laptops is nowhere near the smartphones I think.

P.S.

Apple has USD 211 billion of cash and marketable securities.


(Source - 10Q)

It is still a MOAT.

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This would explain some of the weirder Twitter photos.

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Apparently the big reveal is going to be Augmented Reality Glasses.

I’ll hold off on buying Apple till around the time where the 5g phone will be announced. As an earlier poster said it seems they’ve stagnated…unless they pull a rabbit out the hat today and shock everyone!!

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Apple Livestream Event: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=996wliAI_y4 // https://www.apple.com/apple-events/livestream/

Apple Arcade to be launched for $4.99 a month. Over 100 exclusive games.

[Update 1]
Apple TV + free for 1 year to those who buy a new iPhone, iMac, iPad.
$4.99 a month. Also for the whole family.
The power of the lock-in.

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Hey @rod, sorry for the delay, it’s been quite a day :sweat_smile:

The chart shows trades (buys) for each stock.

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The Super Retina XDR display, A13 bionic, 8.5 billion transistors in a chip, best machine learning platform in a smartphone, pro camera, wide camera, ultra wide camera, telephoto camera…



image
image

(Source - https://theoatmeal.com/comics/apple)

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:joy::joy::joy:

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The cheapest iPhone appears to be priced at $699 + local tax (£729 in :uk:…). That’s down from maybe $750 a year before.

Pricing was a big theme during the entire presentation. $4.99 a month for TV+!

“Nice” FX rate:
US: iPhone Pro 64GB - $999 (plus local tax, I assume)
UK: iPhone Pro 64GB - £1,049

The cheapest Apple Watch is 3 - at £199. It is two models behind but probably aimed at the FitBit users. Smart.

With India/China being some of the most important markets for Apple, presenting your hardware products as cheaper than before - or at least cheaper than the next premium Galaxy phone - may be a good strategy. They may also be taking into account the foreign exchange fluctuations, so can afford to use some of the mega cash reserves to attract new customers looking for “high end” stuff.

2019:
iPhone Pro $999
iPhone 11 $699 +local tax
iPhone XR $600
iPhone 8 $450

2018:
iPhone XS $999…
iPhone XR $750ish

Undercutting the competition.

Well done, Apple.

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Personally I’m not a fan of Apple products, I think they are overpriced compared to the competition and I’m not a fan of IOS

but I realise loads of people do like them and they have an almost cult like following (as shown in the Oatmeal cartoon above!) and that’s why I own shares :smiley:

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:+1: With Apple I’d guess it’s unusual to hear someone disliking the products but holding the stock.

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Im with Dave. Apple annoys me no end and I love Samsung. But I think Apple is a great stock. The fact Warren Buffet holds a huge position too makes me feel alright about its cost.

Apple used to be great under Jobs. Now their products just ride along on his ethereal coat tails. I live in the Apple ecosystem and can see the quality depreciation of the last few years. Sad.

@rod I don’t think we can put the ~$988 bn market cap down to fan-boys. I’ve personally never bought an Apple product, but have held the shares for years. :money_mouth_face:

I’m worried about where future innovation might come from. From a business PoV, I like the shift into services.

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@Anders I just meant that you don’t often hear about individual retail investors who actively dislike a product buying its stock.

Actually I think two of the largest incorrect Apple narratives are that it’s all about fanboys, and that the company is permanently on the brink of disaster. Disclosure: I too have long been long.

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Hey, iOS mobile devs here. At Apple’s WWDC and during the iPhone Pro presentation there were some big machine learning announcements - from CoreML for Xcode to the A13 chip.

This translates into cooler app features - from the default keyboard (text prediction etc) to photos apps to many third-party apps we use daily, including for :selfie:.

iPhone Pro’s new ASIC - the A13 bionic with CPU, GPU, Neural Engine combined - apparently has a faster (6x) matrix op. multiplication capability (kinda what most of “AI” these days does with the data when learning - a lot of ML is powered by linear algebra).

Think of the A13 bionic as what, say, Nvidia does with its GPUs but at a much smaller scale. Intel and AMD missed the mobile wave since 2007 completely.

There were tons of software updates for Xcode’s CoreML and Create ML libraries/frameworks. I think Create ML is fantastic, as you can skip writing boilerplate in Python and the GUI is intuitive. It makes ML accessible to more mobile developers. And the capability to do on-device training “overnight” on your machine - instead of sending data over to the cloud mostly, combined with a new faster chip - is a big deal.

Corning got some :moneybag:from :green_apple: y’all.

$250 million to be exact :selfie: