I think more frightening is that when they came to market in 2017 there was 4B outstanding. Thats a 75% increase in shares outstanding in 2 years! The expected debt/EBITDA rate is expected to stay around 3.5x through to 2035 so there is little chance of shares being bought back in the medium term.
Current data based on analyst estimates (which aren’t likely to be accurate) are:
None of that is really useful since they wont be pulling anything out of the ground for those estimates so its a little unfair to judge by those numbers. Revenue is 0 for FY2021.
@AchillesFirstStand I’ll have a go for you, but these numbers are very rough.
Latest EBITDA margin is expected to be 67-80%. And the first year of production should bring in about $1.3B based on average market prices. so that should equate to about EPS of $0.12 to $0.14.
So based on todays price of around 10p per share the first year of production should make you’re money back But that is based on the following IFS:
- If they get there at all
- If they can sell at the average price of $130 per tonne
- If they can mine 13M tonnes
- If they can sell of those 13M tonnes
- If the operating costs of business are in line with their expectations
- If the cost of their debt is in the 7% range they expect
- If CAPEX stays flat