[On :freetrade:] Uber (UBER) 🤖 🚕

Not to mention diminished networking effects in most of its markets. Probably my biggest sticking point.

1 Like

Hi all! Does anybody know if Uber shares will soon be available after going public tomorrow?
Cheers

Isn’t it Lyft listing “around the 18th of March” with Uber coming up a few weeks later? In either case, I think there will be some sort of delay before these companies will available on Freetrade. If they are listing on NYSE or NASDAQ, I believe there should be no issues at all in terms of offering them and it is reasonable to expect them to be released in the nearest batch of the US stocks (subject to the IPO dates, of course) :slight_smile:

1 Like

Of course, you are right. It was Lyft today and Uber hopefully early April.
Thanks

Staying well away. I reckon the price will just fall from IPO day till forever.

2 Likes

I dont know, it might surprise you. How come you say that?

I can’t speak for @Certi.Curti , but my case for not investing in Uber is:

  • The headline valuation suggests to me that “winning most of transport” is already priced in so I’d fear further growth was difficult. That is a gut reaction though - I haven’t looked at Uber’s financials.
  • It now looks like ridesharing is a series of separate, winner-take-all territories: the network effect from building both sides of the market is local rather than global (see Uber’s difficulties in China, India etc). So scale is less of a moat than it is for other startups.
  • Electric/battery tech is deploying to other forms of transport more quickly than cars. This may create additional competition and unbundle car use quicker than rideshare unbundles car ownership. (Admittedly Uber is investing in scooter rideshare cos etc.)
  • Google is way ahead of the self-driving competition and is invested in Lyft. This will be a future problem for Uber.
  • Historically Uber’s culture was poisonous. It may be better now, I don’t know, but that history has made me avoid their product.

I also wonder whether the IPO market will break for a few years if Uber’s doesn’t go well.

7 Likes

Good justifications.

For me, i just don’t really believe in IPOs. I don’t see the benefit.

To be clear, i’m distinguishing between an IPO and a stock once its IPO’d. Slight nuance, but important distinction. If in the future the stock has great fundamentals then I would invest.

I believed this from my own personal perspective. But yesterday I came across this interview and Buffett puts it across much better.

“Rather by a company when i choose to, not when they choose to sell to me.”

IPOs allow underwriters and private investors profit more.

@cesarecardia

5 Likes

I agree with that sentiment. why pile in with everyone else who is clamouring to pile in? take facebook for example, It’s much higher than the IPO price now but there was an opportunity to get in at an even better price a few weeks after the IPO

1 Like

Agreed… Seems like a few weeks - a month after an IPO when the sell off has happened is usually a great time.

1 Like

IPO getting closer for UBER

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/uber-s-potential-investors-to-soon-see-its-books-as-ipo-nears

2 Likes

Hopefully it will not crash like lyft after initial offering.

Uber filed for IPO yesterday, their S-1 has a lot of information, here’s some early coverage:

2 Likes

The fact they have the additional revenue lines should make them a bit stronger than Lyft, but the massive marketing cash burn is extremely off putting for me.

Saw this on Twitter via FT comments section - thought it might be of interest! :sweat_smile:

FTcomment

18 Likes
2 Likes

Some pretty scathing analysis from Alphaville as usual - an MIT study’s found that autonomous taxi fleets will be more expensive for consumers than taxis with drivers :thinking:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/04/29/1556557142000/Scoop--the-questionable-economics-of-autonomous-taxi-fleets/

I think it’ll defo perform better than Lyft, but still fall especially in the early days - I do think they could turn it around but it will take time

Very high valuation though for a company with so many competitors and no moat.