Oracle (ORCL) - Share Chat

I hope we can buy put options next year. Oracle is the kind of ex-moat that is ideal to short. Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft Azure cloud, and Google Cloud are eating their lunch.

At cloud dev and machine learning conferences they are invisible - a bit like IBM.

Buffett explained his decision to buy IBM to CNBC in 2011, saying that the company had a pattern of laying out a road map of goals every five years, and consistently knocking them down.

Later on, after selling IBM shares Warren apparently said he could’ve called the Alphabet/GOOG founders.

But, the market share is huge:

…Oracle still controls roughly half of the global database market, worth tens of billions of dollars. Never mind that, as Gartner analyst Merv Adrian has highlighted, Oracle has lost market share every year since 2013.

Given how entrenched they’ve been for so long, that still leaves them with roughly 86 percent of the market, but it’s not good news for them that open source databases, which claimed 0 percent of the paid market ten years ago, now take more than 7 percent, according to Gartner, or that cloud databases from Amazon Web Services and other new commercial providers are also booming.

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