I think its going to depend on the general state of covid and aviation, for the oil side of things at least, and their ability to effectively conduct business in all their other areas of business.
A vaccine is looking very favourable for the end of the year, not mass roll out yet. Though AstraZeneca have the manufacturing capacity set to produce 3 billion dozes of the oxford vaccine per year. It’s very likely they’ll be producing the vaccine before final approval ready to send out initial batches to Europe etc.
Assuming no hurdles in the vaccine im optimistic a fair portion of vulnerable people will have an initial vaccination starting early 2021 which will reduce the need for heavy restrictions. Well also be coming out of winter reducing the need for restrictions as well.
This should very likely have some decent impact, but there’s still the phycological issues of getting people out and about again.
It will at least i think reduce any concern on oil specifically.
Oh, also 29 October Shell release Q3 quarterly results, so this is perhaps worth reading.