Shopify - SHOP - Share Chat

Shopify is looking good for starting a new position.

Q4 results in 2 days, which will (hopefully) be positive.

Downsides are Q3 results are in yearly decline and so are referrals.

Anyone have anything to add?

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1600->840 for 3months

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I really like shopify but haven’t looked at the numbers to decide if I like the price.

That’s a good price given it was very high for a long time. I’ve been lurking this stock for a while but did not look it up lately. The business model is sound, there is a large customer base so I think it is worth investing at the right price. I think the low price has partially to do with the general market sentiment.

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Even better price now!

Is there a bull case for $SHOP as no doubt Sasha Yanshin has put out a bear case for it

I’ll caveat this with: I’m not familiar with Sasha Yanshin so I’ve watched their video without any of the context you might have about how they approach their analysis. Additionally, I do not hold any position directly in Shopify (but I am a happy customer).

I don’t think they would characterise what Sasha shared as a bear case, rather, it’s a commentary on market reaction.

A key to remember is that business performance does not drive share price, market sentiment drives share price: a bunch of negative analyses based on a surprising balance sheet could sway market sentiment in the short term, but it doesn’t speak to the long term prospects of the business.

I remember a few years ago when Facebook Dating was announced, Match.com – which had experienced strong growth prior – lost ~30% overnight, and yet here we are a couple of years later, Match.com has seen a ~100% increase since then and Facebook Dating is, well, it’s Facebook Dating.

Sasha specifically speaks to the amount of time it takes for an advertising dollar to be returned, and provides Fiverr as an example of a business that is doing better than Shopify in that regard. However, that’s not a particularly important measure, nor is it particularly relevant to a business like Shopify, especially when we consider that not all dollars spent are equal and Shopify’s customers are not homogenous. LTV is a far more important metric: consider Gymshark as a fantastic example of the growth a single Shopify customer can experience, and how that translates for Shopify… Fiverr on the other hand, their growth potential for a single customer is probably a few hundred dollars in additional revenue.

As an example of how these increasing costs could be a good sign, Shopify could have determined that if they onboard a store onto the platform that already has at least $10k in revenue then there is an 80% chance that the customer will go on to have a LTV (LifeTime Value) of at least $100,000. Shopify could then spend more on a per-customer basis in the short term, but reap huge benefits over the long term, so much so that it would be obvious to increase per-customer costs. If you’re Shopify and you’re getting more and more confident you can identify prospects with a high LTV, and keep them once they’re onboarded because the platform is getting stickier and stickier, you’re going to go all in, because that’s a huge competitive advantage.

Anyway, this isn’t intended to be a bull case per-se, rather, it’s intended to reject increasing costs as the foundation of a bear case. The bull case for Shopify doesn’t need to be more complicated than “Shopify own the majority of ecommerce infrastructure and ecommerce is the future”. I do not actively invest so this is mostly a worthless sentiment, but if I did actively invest, and I had a multi-year horizon, Shopify would be a no-brainer.

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I’m surprised more hasn’t been mentioned about Shopifys partnership with JD.com.

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China E-Commerce Market a Boon for Retailers:

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Full story:

Somebody fat fingered a $100B company minutes before the closing or is this a glitch?

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Odd! Check out the post trading price too! :thinking:

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I think this will ‘correct’ at market opening on Monday … unfortunately :rofl:

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Probably a short squeeze.

With 3% of he stock sold short? Not everything is a short squeeze.

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There is a roumor of a 1:10 split to be announced on Monday. Some big fish with a large (~200k sh) short position panicked and bought to cover in one trade in the last second of regular hours.
Just a theory, but haven’t seen a better one.

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Far more likely to be a data issue. a 1:10 split doesn’t affect the value of the company and so in theory shouldn’t affect short sellers

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Could may as well be a data issue. However, it is well known that a stock split, more often than not, results in a temporary increase in the adjusted stock price. All due to diverse psychological factors.

From Investopedia: “When a stock splits, it can also result in a share price increase—even though there may be a decrease immediately after the stock split. This is because small investors may perceive the stock as more affordable and buy the stock. This effectively boosts demand for the stock and drives up prices. Another possible reason for the price increase is that a stock split provides a signal to the market that the company’s share price has been increasing; people may assume this growth will continue in the future. This further lifts demand and prices”.

If a stock split is a slight advantage on share price… Then surely a major announcement would have been made … eg Google/Amazon … I am aware Shopify is not in the same league … but I think it would have been announced in some way …

My money goes on a data glitch … will see tomorrow :laughing:

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10 for 1 split

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