Tesla (TSLA) 🚗🔌 - Share Chat

Ok, here’s what I think of the bear case:

Cars Sold (millions) in 2025: 5

Very optimistic, and my model is closely based on Tesla’s own lofty 20TWh goal. 3m much more achievable.

Average Selling Price (ASP): $45,000

Slightly optimistic imo, likely closer to $40k but depends on vehicle rollouts etc

Insurance Revenue (billions): $23

That would put it among the worlds largest, not getting more than single figure by 2025 at most.

Human-Driven Ride-Hail Revenue (net, billions): $42

That would make it three times bigger than Uber. Now, I’m actually quite bullish on the potential for Tesla to rollout a ride-hailing service and compete very favourably but this is fanciful. Getting anything over single figure billions with the amount of cars by then will be impossible.

Electric Vehicle Gross Margin (ex-credits): 40%

No.

I can see some of the bull case projections are less ambitious but they’re just trying to pump the bear case when it should be much lower. At least ARK are making me more confident in my ~$900 exit target because I know anything above that is entirely FSD hype.

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Variation on a theme*:

*Oldie but goodie.

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Interesting from JC.

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Excellent video, totally agree with Bloomstran, the insurance assumptions are nuts, and demonstrate a lack of understanding of how insurance works

Ok so this video is just someone reading Chris’ twitter thread so let me save everyone some time:

That Ark report is embarrassing though, they use ‘Monte Carlo’ like a 1st year undergrad trying to impress their tutor.

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Oh it gets better, with the podcast offer

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Here’s an interesting idea… what if Tesla buys SpaceX ? :thinking:

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For info.
I’m picturing Craig in a sit-down with Cathie; that would be an interesting one.

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The company’s valuation of around $660 billion is close to the total size of the U.S. and European automotive markets, even though it’s only a “minor player” overall.

“So for me, I see this as a market dislocation, I see this as something avoiding analysis of the fundamentals and I think there’s room for many successful companies in the market. People are just assuming that Tesla has no competition when they put this kind of lofty valuation on the company,”

Rational thought has entered the chat

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