Ok, here’s what I think of the bear case:
Cars Sold (millions) in 2025: 5
Very optimistic, and my model is closely based on Tesla’s own lofty 20TWh goal. 3m much more achievable.
Average Selling Price (ASP): $45,000
Slightly optimistic imo, likely closer to $40k but depends on vehicle rollouts etc
Insurance Revenue (billions): $23
That would put it among the worlds largest, not getting more than single figure by 2025 at most.
Human-Driven Ride-Hail Revenue (net, billions): $42
That would make it three times bigger than Uber. Now, I’m actually quite bullish on the potential for Tesla to rollout a ride-hailing service and compete very favourably but this is fanciful. Getting anything over single figure billions with the amount of cars by then will be impossible.
Electric Vehicle Gross Margin (ex-credits): 40%
I can see some of the bull case projections are less ambitious but they’re just trying to pump the bear case when it should be much lower. At least ARK are making me more confident in my ~$900 exit target because I know anything above that is entirely FSD hype.