Tesla (TSLA) 🚗🔌 - Share Chat

I don’t think anyone disputes Tesla are No1 at the moment :+1: but the tech is not something that others can’t match quite soon now they release their funding brakes into the EV market.

My point is cars are quite personal and people like to have a car that feels unique even if many have them. Example being I have never bought a Ford as they just feel boring. The market needs many competitors to offer different styles etc and 1 dominant would be a dull car.

That’s not to say it won’t be a market leader but it’s price as being worth more than many competitors combined I think will change. That could be others increasing value rather than Tesla decreasing but market value % I believe will level off.

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Bad advice lol

The Japanese group acquired 1.4m Tesla shares at $21.15 each in 2010 for about $30m. As of March last year, it held shares worth ¥80.9bn, but that stake was reduced to zero by the end of this past March, according to a filing on Friday.

Not a bad return, only about 11,900%. May also help to explain the poor performance early in the year.

No official change to the joint venture, but:

In an interview in March, Panasonic chair Kazuhiro Tsuga told the Financial Times that the group’s partnership with Tesla was entering “a different phase”. “At some point, we need to graduate from our one-legged approach of relying solely on Tesla,” Tsuga said. “We need to keep an eye on supplying manufacturers other than Tesla.”

Tesla is doing the same, so I think this strategic partnership just lost the “strategic” part.

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The shorts need to be loud and post constantly to NOT lose their money. Why short when the upside is so much easier to live with?

Observation: I’m seeing 2-6 different Tesla’s per day in my local area now!

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Me too, and I’m not in a big city or even a particularly large town - nor a highly wealthy area.

To be honest, I’m just excited about the 2nd hand market in a few years… but not because of 2nd hand Teslas, rather because it hopefully their availability will push down the current obscene 2nd hand prices of Nissan Leafs and Zoes!

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Not sure if this has been posted, or how long you’ve been tracking this, but the used car market right now is hotter than a wonky CCTV capture from the DHSC @CashCow.

Pent up demand, silicon shortages, supply chain disruption and on going national lockdowns across the world have impacted the new car market to the extent its buoying the second hard car market enough to move the needle on headline inflation numbers. The Alphaville article is excellent:

Inflation Indicators: Used car edition

Register to read | Financial Times

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Ah I’ve been following it for a couple of years now but this might certainly go towards explaining why they’re just refusing to drop.

I don’t want a £5000 knackered Leaf that will only do 65 miles in winter or a similar priced 1st gen Renault Cleo with ~£70 monthly battery rental on top! Nor do I want a death trap Riva G Whiz for £2000 that does 20 miles!

AutoTrader electric car search for the curious - New & Used Cars for Sale - Auto Trader UK

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The leafs have proven to be quite resilient, despite their relative primitivity.

A lower-mileage (2016-18) 30KWh model should still have 75%+ capacity, and a newer 24KWh model (2014-16) will also still have 75+% left.

Zoe’s are the better car but you’re right the rental is the killer. Renault don’t even make public how much they make you fork out to buy it off them!

Thankfully this problem will soon be alleviated with all the cheap EVs dropping like the MGs.

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Interesting piece in the FT about the consequences of the arbitrary inclusion criteria of the S&P500 and the resultant late addition of Tesla. In short the forced buying has likely transferred billions from long term investors tracking the index to liquidity providers (HFs).

A pensioner with a $100,000 allocation to the S&P 500 is about $410 poorer as the result of the December index rebalance.

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I read that yesterday and was amazed by the scale of deletion outperformance. Someone should make an ETF of that!

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Tesla posted decent numbers today

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Its just a behemoth at this point. My estimates for 2021 turned out pretty conservative! Looks like 50%+ YoY growth is all but guaranteed. Also really glad to see energy and solar ramping, and positive gross margin on that side too. I saw there’s a new online configurator for megapack so I hope there’s more to come. Sounds strange to say but from a climate change perspective I’m now much more interested in storage, autobidder, solar (HVAC?) upside than auto.

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Yep and analyst expectations for FY EPS of $4.51 seem right on the money now. So that would be 140x. $6.59 for 2022 also seems achievable given Semi, Cyber, less restrictions for solar deployment so that is 95x. Based on sales growth of 55% and 35% next year. P/E can’t really get much lower in this market if this growth rate continues. Were getting to the point you can feasibly say US stocks are expensive but Tesla isn’t.

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