Thanks for taking the time and effort to compile all of these. Great to see them all on the same page, all in the same ball park, all consistently singing from the same hymn sheet.
It really inspires confidence in all kinds of financial analysis when I see big names like these in agreement. It definitely doesnāt make me think that itās all bullshit cow pats, guesswork and luck.
To be honest the sell side analysts are just having the same ānot a car companyā debate as everyone else: some are estimates based on them being the worldās top premium car manufacturer others are based on a tech/energy company that happens to sell cars. The MS alert even calls this out explicitly saying 60% of the value comes from outside of auto.
Itās no surprise that gives very different results, if they were all just looking at cars theyād probably come up with similar sales volumes, margins and targets, but thatās not the case. Some of them are basically valuing another Alphabet and others are valuing another VW.
Itās not like these guys can tell you which Tesla will end up becoming so the actual numbers themselves are fairly meaningless.
Hopefully a lot better than it has done these last few months. Iāve been in minus since around March, although it has clawed back some and Iām now currently only ~1.5% loss, so should be in profit hopefully today.
And the reaction on the (cultish) TeslaMotors subreddit. There are some voices of reason but a lot of people defending a multi billion dollar company owned by the 2nd richest man in the worldā¦ as though Tesla is infallible and incapable of mistakes.
Im personally expecting a very big Q3 and Q4 and the share price should move up in response. Production expansion at the China factory will drive delivery numbers higher, Berlin and Texas factories will then start pre-production and improving liquidity may result in investment grade credit rating some time around the new year. Supply chain difficulties could slow some of this down but Im very optimistic about the next 6 months.
Progress on Autopilot is a wild card. If they are able to make consistent improvements every 2 weeks more value might start to be assigned to autonomous driving potential. For now I think most see that as long-shot. Im going to hold and see where we are in January.
Yes Iād imagine it would be kept in house. The car business is fairly low margin so surrounding it with more profitable revenue streams means they have an advantage over their competitors.
Just dropping to congratulate all who held Tesla during the massive sell off earlier this year a lot of people on this board were talking absolute drivel about how the sell off was permanent and Teslaās valuation was still overvalued! How wrong they were stay strong bulls and keep holding and accumulating!
737B market cap is a big and impressive market cap.
But itās built on sand and there is going to be a mighty crash. Itās just a matter of when.
Itās a like a massive rollercoaster cranking up for a drop, leaving those on board throwing up over the side and desperate to get off.
Yes, Tesla is a good company, but its price is based on a belief in one very charismatic man.
Hold by all means. Just hold on tight!
