So from a quick look I think TSMC bought about 25 EUV scanners in 2020 from a total spend of about 18bn so very crudely about 20-25% capex went to ASML EUV.
So that might put a 100bn spend at around 20-25bn on EUV for perhaps 120-130 scanners. Even with ASML set to double volumes that pretty much all their capacity into 2023.
For ArF immersion DUV ASML don’t have a complete monopoly, so Nikon might take a bit.
It’s hard to know how many layers of EUV vs DUV will be used in future process nodes. I think for N5 it’s about 12 layers of EUV for about 60 layers of DUV. Although generally each EUV layer can replace 10 DUV layers so the trend has been for fewer total layers.
DUV scanners have about double the throughput of EUV so you don’t necessarily need many more units so maybe another 150 DUV units for 7.5-10bn
So maybe in total more like 30bn of this to ASML, it’s hard to see how there is going to be enough capacity with both Intel and Samsung also committed to significant expansion, it feels like someone is going to miss out.
I think it’s all priced in already as ASML has continued to surge during the semiconductor shortage.