TSMC 🖥🍟 - TSM

The underlaying shares are listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange which unfortunately isn’t a recognised stock exchange by HMRC for ISA investment purposes, due to that it remains ISA-ineligible.

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Why in gods name did they do that? Its not like China is threat to national security?

Berkshire Hathaway just invested $4.1 billion into this company, time for me to run the slide rule over the company and see if I’ll follow and invest

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway bought a load of TSMC stock in November. The Oracle of Omaha is renowned for picking great securities to invest in. For that reason, I’m strongly considering investing in the world’s most valuable semiconductor company.

Apart from the geopolitical risks associated with investing in TSMC, I genuinely don’t see any other reason not to over the long term. Any other thoughts on this?

Are you?

How much are you “strongly considering” inverting? and at what SP?

I trust you meant investing? Might throw in a couple of thousand, if I’m being honest. Average target price of just below $100 as of today, so will happily enter at any level below that. Either way, in it for the long term, and worth noting that target prices tend to be 1-year horizons.

Their 4nm factory is in the USA so geopolitical risk is reduced massively. However, they’ll get caught in the downturn, like intel. I’ll be buying this at the bottom.

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I agree with you on the risk aspect, but I reckon the downturn isn’t going to be as harsh as seen with Intel. AMD is their largest customer amongst the chip makers and they’re embedded and cloud divisions are growing rapidly despite the recessionary backdrop. There’s a case to be made that the bottom may have very well been realised.

The loss of Chinese business is a huge hit for everyone I think. Plus I think they be affected by supply chain snags will have an effect. Although they are booked out now so indeed that could be the case. Imo, the bottom isn’t in till the fed has done its job. Today’s jobs report pushes rate expectations above 5%. Imo its so hot it needs to go way higher and I think whales still have to sell it for $

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Those are certainly good points. ‘Poor’ jobs report today, but should keep in mind that it’s still on a decline. More importantly, Fed funds futures are still holding relatively steady as compared to a week ago. 50bps hike for the next meeting is still priced in at 77% probability with the terminal rate at 475-500bps still most likely.

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So, anyone else think this is this a good buy at 13 PE ratio? Or will it fall further still?

Regarding falling more, I am afraid that I will disappoint you by saying that nobody knows :joy: if someone tells you otherwise, they are lying.

If the price is good, by humble opinion, which is not investment advice and don’t trust anyone on an internet forum, it is a good price for a company expanding to U.S. and I believe E.U. as well. Another favourable argument is that Buffet bought a lot of the stock, so if you believe that one of the best investors ever is interested in the stock at this price, it is a good price.
The risk here is China taking Taiwan by storm and literally take control of it before finishing the transition to other geographical areas, which can take years. This company plays a critical role in todays computing world, and a disruption on it’s Taiwan factory would cause a massive chip crisis.

Make your own research before investing.

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Q1 results are out.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2023/q1

Buffet sold out too btw. Interview on CNBC he basically cited invasion.

I saw a clip of the interview. His strategy is avoid risk as much as possible. This is why he sold. He likes the business, but since he cold break is no1 rule, he sold it. Doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but he is super risk averse.
Buffet no1 rule: Never loose money!

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I also think an issue is the fact that the USA wants the whole supply chain for lithography out of Taiwan and Taiwan has issues with that.

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I don’t think they will ever achieve that. ASML clearly said they don’t want to move outside NL, and fab productivity outside of USA has always been better(and cheeper).

If there is an attack on Taiwan, it’s not only TSMC that’s going to be impacted, Apple and many other that rely on TSMC will suffer consequences. I would risk saying the all world.
A ship stuck on a canal can cause a massive disruption, imagine an attack on the lead semiconductor manufacturer’s infrastructure.

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