Okay, so I bought literally ONE HOUR before the acquisition was publicly announced.
Do I still qualify for the $54.20 per share?
Of course.
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āTwitter as a company has always been my sole issue and my biggest regret. It has been owned by Wall Street and the ad model. Taking it back from Wall Street is the correct first step,ā Jack Dorsey said.
Twitter as of now is trading at $50. Given that an agreement has been reached at $54.20, is there any reason right now why anyone shouldnāt be buying apart from the fact that the deal might fall through?
Am I missing something obvious?
So how does making it a private company, make it the ābastion of free speechā Musk claims heās looking for?
As you can likely tell, Iām a skeptic
Youāre not missing anything, there is a healthy market in investors doing ātake over arbitrageā.
If youāre sure itās going to happen and youāre happy to park your capital in Twitter stock for a few months you could clear nearly 10%.
Your risk is the deal falling through, given an accepted take over offer normally has a premium attached to it, and the share price drops.
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No one really knows what Musk has planned. Heās supposedly a free speech absolutist (reckless) but at the same time heās fired an employee of Tesla for uploading a video to YouTube of them showing Tesla Autopilot screwing up on the roads and heās heavily anti-union at his workplaces too.
Oh and heās not too pleased that a Twitter user has an account that just tweets out the locations of Elonās private jets. It might be a case of āfreeze peach for me but not for theeā. There are already ājokesā going around that heās bought Twitter just so he can kick that guy off it - spending $44bn for a safe space for himself.
People generally donāt want unlimited free speech platforms - they turn into a hellscape pretty quickly. Itās moderated platforms that always thrive.
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he caveats this by saying except for anything which violates the law
Thanks @NeilB. Just wanted to sanity check my logic. Now to debate whether the risk/reward ratio is rightš
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So what is confirmed as happening?
Is it going private, is this confirmed?
Has he done a āhostile takeoverā?
Hostile take over happens when the board do not accept someoneās offer but they build enough of a stake to force their hand.
Elon has had his offer accepted for the company, not the legal bit happens which could take a couple of months maybe more and then itāll be his.
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To do with what he wants
The free speech stuff is a smokescreen. There will be another agenda and it will be all about making him even richer than anybody should ever be. The bid has a major impact on anyone who has Puts on Twitter under $54 and also annihilates a load of folks who are short on the stock. Just sayinā.
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It looks like both Twitter and Tesla have now become the Elon Musk show. He has sold plenty of Tesla Stock recently.
Sure its a big buying oportunity for TSLA but I donāt like how Elon is somehow larger then the company itself at times.
Its made TSLA and TWTR ācelebrity stocksā to a degree.
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Twitter will benefit from being a private company regardless of who own it. Living in the quarterly thread mill of user growth has left the comany rudderless.
Everyone is so fixated on growth they twitter havenāt ever worked out how to generate any substantial revenue.
ARPU (average revenue per user) last quarter was just a shade over $6, Yes thatās correct $6 ā¦ are you telling me they couldnāt buy a copy of Twitter for dummies with last quarter?
Build a decent product and move all user over 25k follows on to a tier premium platform with the highest accounts paying a few million a year. Use this revenue to build out new features see post from Nov 21 and be a bully. Eat Sub-stackās lunch, push Patreon & Only Fans into a bush before drawing a chalk penis on Spotifyās back & giving TikTok a black eye.
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Right now Twitter seems like a pretty good play at $50, the risk is the deal falls through. But how likely is that reality. The funding is in place, the board are well on board. The other largest shareholders are funds and big banks. They nearly always vote with the board.
So essentially the risk-reward ratio is pretty good, low risk and a near 5% reward. If it stays under 50 for the week I will buy on payday Friday.
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Staying true to your name, FiftyDollarTrader!
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āItās tempting. But experts say buying Twitter stock right now is not such a good idea.ā 
Just added some to my ISA, Iām fairly confident that the deal will go through within the next 2-3 weeks