Uber IPO

I dont know, it might surprise you. How come you say that?

I can’t speak for @Certi.Curti , but my case for not investing in Uber is:

  • The headline valuation suggests to me that “winning most of transport” is already priced in so I’d fear further growth was difficult. That is a gut reaction though - I haven’t looked at Uber’s financials.
  • It now looks like ridesharing is a series of separate, winner-take-all territories: the network effect from building both sides of the market is local rather than global (see Uber’s difficulties in China, India etc). So scale is less of a moat than it is for other startups.
  • Electric/battery tech is deploying to other forms of transport more quickly than cars. This may create additional competition and unbundle car use quicker than rideshare unbundles car ownership. (Admittedly Uber is investing in scooter rideshare cos etc.)
  • Google is way ahead of the self-driving competition and is invested in Lyft. This will be a future problem for Uber.
  • Historically Uber’s culture was poisonous. It may be better now, I don’t know, but that history has made me avoid their product.

I also wonder whether the IPO market will break for a few years if Uber’s doesn’t go well.

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Good justifications.

For me, i just don’t really believe in IPOs. I don’t see the benefit.

To be clear, i’m distinguishing between an IPO and a stock once its IPO’d. Slight nuance, but important distinction. If in the future the stock has great fundamentals then I would invest.

I believed this from my own personal perspective. But yesterday I came across this interview and Buffett puts it across much better.

“Rather by a company when i choose to, not when they choose to sell to me.”

IPOs allow underwriters and private investors profit more.

@cesarecardia

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I agree with that sentiment. why pile in with everyone else who is clamouring to pile in? take facebook for example, It’s much higher than the IPO price now but there was an opportunity to get in at an even better price a few weeks after the IPO

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Agreed… Seems like a few weeks - a month after an IPO when the sell off has happened is usually a great time.

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IPO getting closer for UBER

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-10/uber-s-potential-investors-to-soon-see-its-books-as-ipo-nears

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Hopefully it will not crash like lyft after initial offering.

Uber filed for IPO yesterday, their S-1 has a lot of information, here’s some early coverage:

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The fact they have the additional revenue lines should make them a bit stronger than Lyft, but the massive marketing cash burn is extremely off putting for me.

A post was split to a new topic: Freetrade IPO

Saw this on Twitter via FT comments section - thought it might be of interest! :sweat_smile:

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Some pretty scathing analysis from Alphaville as usual - an MIT study’s found that autonomous taxi fleets will be more expensive for consumers than taxis with drivers :thinking:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/04/29/1556557142000/Scoop--the-questionable-economics-of-autonomous-taxi-fleets/

I think it’ll defo perform better than Lyft, but still fall especially in the early days - I do think they could turn it around but it will take time

Very high valuation though for a company with so many competitors and no moat.

Definitely a high valuation - but I do think they lead this space - and internationally they’re acquiring other competitors.

Cashflows will be lower in the earlier years - but I think growth op later done the line… albeit moderate

Read this gem about UberCab when they were just seed funding! Naval is smart, follow him on Twitter if you have an account or listen to his podcasts.

https://angel.co/blog/congratulations-ubercab

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$45 per share. Definitely pricey.

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