What is going on today? - Megathread

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Yes, that’s the problem (and the solution) - knowledge! I have very weak bond knowledge and so money market funds are safer for me.

My money is spread out - some going into Help-to-save, some savings account, then various equities and some bonds.

I’ve got so much learning to do - but at least I am in the green for now and I’ve not been in the market long, so just want to keep it that way as much as I can

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Best words I have listened to & adopted:

  1. Expect to be down at least once during the first 4 years entering the stock market.

  2. Stocks beat most asset gains over a 30 year period.

Everything else requires a a more advanced financial literacy understanding to read shorter trends and have the knowledge to take advantage of opportunities in different asset classes when they appear.

Like the people who totally understood that buying a property during 2009 - 2020 on a really low interest rate was at the time the 2nd best investment to make alongside stocks for that period.

I see that over the next 1-3 years a direction will appear to the ones with a great financial understanding on what the top opportunity is for the next decade or so.

My personal view is things move sideways for 3-5 years and life is simply just tough with swings up and down but no real trajectory. During which period the opportunities arise.

I kinda get the feeling there is more risk than reward atm. Skewed like 60% risk 40% reward. Really tough environment to invest in as it’s more easier to make a big costly mistake.

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Yes, it certainly feels that way. With all the sabre-rattling I have been looking at defence and security and with the energy transition, infrastructure and materials needed for that transition. I also hold some old-energy because as/if production reduces cost will increase to maintain profits while some outgoings decrease - but also because old-energy appears to be transitioning too and it wouldn’t surprise me if they already have a few aces up their sleeves ready for the right moment.

Drax had given me 18%, RR 16%, Prem 106%, BAE 31% and National Grid 13%. You can see where the money has been going, but at what point does this change, and where to? I suspect the gas shortages have been linked to its use in producing weapons, but where will the growth be next?

I also hold ETFs which of course could plummet but picking individual stocks may be useful when I spot patterns emerging. I’ve made a lot of mistakes and am sure I will again. How many is anyone’s guess, but I am making them less often now.

You come across as very knowledgable @101 - what’s your background and how long have you been investing?

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Bunch of interesting links including a study on what time of the day to trade ETFs to avoid high spreads:

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Please vote

This is getting pretty high.

Yep, but the real interest rate would still be around -5% even with this.

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I am calling it and would say right now is one of the most mixed times in our lifetimes for almost all investments regarding valuation, direction, sentiment, decision.

You just noticed?

Wait till the fed is at 10%…

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what bank is it?

Looks Atom-esque to me…

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You know the property market is done for when hard working brits are competing against millionaire foreign property investors and the 100% mortgage comes about.

I know what will help people afford something, MORE DEBT…

I simply want to wake up in this new independent country of the UK and hear that foreign investment on single family homes along with private investment on single family homes is banned indefinitely or at least for 12 years, the same amount of time interest rates were too low and property more than doubled. Just until the British dream actually becomes doable again.

You will not hear a single politician or outspoken ceo even utter the words ‘British dream’ because it’s now brits who will have to be asleep to believe it.

As a human you are not meant to be in debt for 25-35 years of your existence. It’s unhealthy for all aspects of peoples lives.

It really is close to that time where a majority of people stand up and say this is enough, do your fu(k1ng jobs in government or fu<k off.

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Well said.

I believe in capitalism and minimal nanny state handouts.

However this government and successive governments have kept the working man down and propped up their Billionaire benefactors.

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These 100% mortgages have come about because apparently, loads of people are renting and because they spend all their money on rent, they can’t afford to save for a deposit so cannot get a mortgage.

So, will these people jump at the chance of getting their first property using these no-deposit mortgages? I’m sure a few will and I hope they will have done their research and know what they are getting into.

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Sounds like the road to 2008 all over again.

Northern Rock 2.0

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Not quite. Northern Rock were offering 125% mortgages so many customers were in negative equity before they started. 100% mortgages can work in some instances with good affordability checks and customers could quickly build equity through payments and house price rises.

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That paragraph is exactly how subprime lenders would argue before 2008 as well. It’s a slippery slope. Not everyone can and should own property - scarcity is the whole foundation of capitalism.

However, it is ridiculous that barely anyone can comfortably afford housing anymore - be it renting or buying.

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Hence why I said in “some instances”, "good “affordability checks”, “build equity”. I’m sure there are many people out there who could manage well with 100% mortgages. Are we suggesting that someone like @101 who has an investor mindset and finance orientated who doesn’t own a home wouldn’t be able to manage this. Or should he never be able to own one because he doesn’t have a deposit.

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Absolutely. But what is the solution? Not enough rental housing pushes rents up (supply and demand) but nobody wants to be a landlord any more and there will be even fewer when their old properties can’t comply with minimum energy performance ratings.

I can’t see house prices crashing down so that they become affordable (the recent price drop was from a high in 2021, so not really a drop), builders will only build if there’s profits to be made (see Legal & General exiting the modular housing market) and although everyone agrees there should be more housing built, they just don’t want them being built in their own neighbourhoods but in someone else’s (NIMBY’s).

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