What’s up with the market?

china is super rough at the mo. It’s evident they have no time for bubbles however hindsight is 20/20 cos they are a major player in the world economy now and they have responsibilities. This is why i think this is why they keep huarong and evergrande on life support with cash injections and warnings etc. Otherwise, they would have let them die 7+ months ago. Unfortunately I think in this instance they are trying to sweep the tide with a broom in keeping institutions with bad debt going.

evergrand, if i’m not mistaken, has been breaking worldwide records with regards to losses. It’s ev division lost 80 billion in market cap (empty warehouses i think) and having to selloff parts of housing…

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Personally I think China is looking more attractive now than in the past, since it has recently gone through quite a rough correction, and the government has taken steps to reign in excessive speculation. That isn’t to excuse the government of the ethnic cleansing in several provinces, and preparing to invade Taiwan - the government is bad but economically they are in a good place.

There are significant downside risks (social upheaval, slide to dictatorship under Xi), but the country has opened up a lot over the last decades and is growing in power and influence worldwide and the industrial base is second to none. They have effectively used their soft power to influence many countries, not just in their region, just as the US did before it got hooked on global war and now have access to global markets.

Compared to the massively overpriced US market very highly concentrated in just a few names in one sector, it looks a lot more attractive to me right now.

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The overarching issue with China is that they have shown many times over that they can just implement immediate bans and new legislation with zero prior warning. Their is a lot of growth potential, but there is also an insane amount of risk.

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I would need to have a trusted person inside China with a finger on the political pulse tbh.

The conversation has now got interesting after Soros weighed in. I wonder if he has a few bags or he’s genuinely concerned about Blackrock’s push into China.

seemingly the most read story on bloomberg terminal.

I read his hostility as tied in also with his political views (he runs a foundation concerned with promoting democracy and the rule of law), which I do have a lot of sympathy for - he doesn’t think the west should give China investment when they are run like a mafia state, it’s dangerous for the investor in his view but also dangerous for the world.

I think the targeted action against robber barons/rich philanthropists in China recently have certainly given a lot of foreign investors pause but his criticism is broader.

I certainly wouldn’t directly invest in one company there for this reason but am happy to invest in the overall market via an etf.

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I’ve seen the stuff on Soros yeah. I can appreciate his comments due to the fact that if china wants to redistribute wealth of their own billionaires, what does that suggest in China’s long term view of foriegn billionaires who pump billions in to exploit the economy? I also understand that they have genuine beef with each other anyway so that can taint viewpoints.

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Word on the street is CCP China allows Evergrande to reset debt terms to ease the cash crunch.

Propping up housing, but for how long?

For anyone not following this Evergrande situation.

The troubled Chinese property group Evergrande has edged closer to a government-engineered restructuring which could see bondholders take huge losses as Beijing’s price for saving millions of homeowners from financial ruin.
With the likelihood increasing every day that the massively indebted group will be dismantled to avoid triggering a market-wide panic, trade in one of its bonds was suspended in Shanghai on Monday after it plunged 25%.
Shares in the group founded by billionaire Xu Jiayin in the 1990s slipped 6% on Monday to sit below their 2009 float price of HK$3.5.

A disorderly failure of Evergrande would represent a serious risk to the whole Chinese economy, with the risk of contagion in the rest of the world.

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From what I’ve been reading on Twitter this could also impact the crypto market. Take with a pinch of salt as Twitter is my source.

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Other than China what else is up with the market?

I agree with that premise. When we see a full crash / correction, I kinda expect BTC to revert to 10-15k and a painful time for sh*t coins since the whole market moves with BTC.

Too much money sloshing around and no where to put it. Also insane leverage going on behind the scenes and of course, the meme stocks.

Oh yeah, burry’s back on twitter and at it again.

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Lots of red at the moment. Or maybe that’s just me!

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No it’s me too. Still in green on a good few but they have lost half what they were pesky evergrande

So on top of supply chain issues you now have indicators of macro risk such as the USA, UK and Auz building nuclear submarines in Auz to point at China.

Fun times.

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It’s nothing at all and just media hype. Aus was already building subs with France but they were in dispute so cancelled the contract and signed one with the US.

Aukus: UK, US and Australia launch pact to counter China - BBC News

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Yeah, I think the main takeaway is now the emphasis is that it’s to “counter China”.
Somehow the major western countries(and investors in my cynical opinion) were absolutely not bothered by all the crap the CCP pulled until money was lost in the markets.

Edit: so its not nukes on subs, however the posturing is still the same.

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Again, it is the media hyping it. They never mentioned China, the media brought that into the equation.

The leaders did not refer to China directly, but said regional security challenges had "grown significantly

If you follow news past the headlines virtually every day China & Russia have spokespeople complain about something we did and vice versa. If the Express were a real news source and not a joke we would think we were about to start WW3 twice a week. In reality this is a nothing story other than a supplier change and shouldn’t effect anyone in real life.