What’s up with the market?

Thought not.

I bought the dip

Brave

Bought crypto dip

Life savings on shib?

Lol i was already a Shib multi-millionaire before the dramatic rise.

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Hi Michael

  • Salaried yes, investing before all debts are paid off yes, but in more than enough of a position to invest without fear of needing to pull out. My mortgage - fixed until 2027 at a low rate - is a relatively trivial cost even with an overpayment, and given that it’s less than a third the expected rate of inflation over the next year, and that I expect to be two rungs up on the career ladder by the time I need to think about renewing, it’s not something that keeps me up with worry in the slightest.

  • As for my pension I don’t worry about it at the moment. It’s by far my largest investment, sure, but for the time being I’m just putting in the default amount into a pension that yes I know is of mediocre quality, to be taken on as a SIPP at a later time. Partly because I’m waiting for a crash or two as an investor before determining that I’m ready to take it on as a SIPP, partly due to lack of research which for the short term I’m not interested in doing. My time is better spent learning how to actually invest and understanding my existing investments better, at this stage.

Even aside from that, ISA is my first toe into the water in investing, and I feel my spare money is better placed there than in a SIPP for two reasons.

One, while I’m not explicitly a FIRE investor, even with a decidedly poor ROI I should have the financial means to be free to choose whether to work, or to do something else with my time, long before I’m eligible to take money out of a pension. Pointless therefore to have too high a proportion of those means tied up in my pension no matter what the incentives.

Two, a somewhat political point which I make only in the context of answering your question, I have very little trust in the current legislative environment. Whether we’re talking about social care, or student loans, or the state pension age/the deal with NI more broadly, governments pre- and post- 2016 have seemed too willing to move the goalposts on schemes which are explicitly financial in nature over which those who have a stake in the outcome have little room. You can’t un-go to university or un-choose whether or not to overpay. You can’t retrospectively claim that because you paid your NI contributions when the covenant of the what NI contributions were was different they should be considered more valuable. Nor can you take money out of your pension prior to retirement age, that future strings attached make you regret having put in.

As for not selling, I don’t entirely agree. There are lots of reasons that your advice is strong advice - but three very good reasons why it’s strong advice and not a golden rule. Never sell is predicated on three very dangerous assumptions.

One, that you picked well in the first place. Warren Buffett doesn’t hold long term because he knows he got it right at the time and can therefore ignore what a company does thereafter, he holds long term because he reaffirms his decisions.

Two, that all stocks are always fairly valued relative to one another at all times. If this were the case everyone who started and finished investing at exactly the same times, would have exactly the same ROI regardless of what they invested in.

Three, that selling automatically means a short termist approach and/or an intention to exit the market. Selling quickly as a long term investor makes sense, if and only if, based on the information you have today, looking at the holding as a fresh entity, you would consider it to have poor future prospects. The discipline comes from not using recent performance as a factor when weighing future prospects. This of course becomes more important when the initial trigger for re-evaluating the holding was past performance, which is why it’s generally better to use time increments, rather than performance increments, to decide when to re-evaluate a holding. My admission with regards to coming perilously close to swing trading was simply that the speed at which the market was moving, and the degree to which I feel that we are at the latter end of a bubble to which Covid was an interruption and subsequently a catalyst, are making me look at all my holdings quite frequently, in depth.

As for your question on the 2001 crash, that would depend on what had been invested in and what proportions were invested before and after the crash. To answer your question more charitably it would depend on the precise degree of your long term outlook and quality of your initial investment. Average inflation has been of the order of 2.3% in the 21st century, and let’s say for argument’s sake, the investment aim was relatively modest - to double this. A £10,000 investment in 2000 would need to grow 56.8% over the course of a decade to achieve this. One of the most notable survivors from the dotcom bubble was just below this level of growth if your reference period is 1 Jan 2000 to 1 Jan 2010. Whereas from 1 Jan 2001 to 1 Jan 2011, it had grown approximately twelvefold. The lesson I take from that, particularly as an investor who is drip-feeding the investment in, is not “try to predict within a short timeband the next crash”, but “if you think what you’re thinking about buying is currently is overvalued, invest in something that is currently fairly or under valued instead.” If you’re right you can buy the overvalued stock cheaper later, and if you were wrong, well… you shouldn’t be buying stocks that you think you’re wrong about.

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A TL;DR way of putting my previous post is, the closer you feel you are to the end of a bull market, the more the emphasis should be on buying stocks whose valuation is based on where they are now. The closer you are to the beginning of a bull market, the more the emphasis should be on buying stocks whose value is based on where they will be in the future. As far as selling is concerned, yes, I’m starting to sell off some of my higher growth stocks and reinvesting a bit more in those who are strong now and I believe will be relatively resilient should a crash come, knowing that down the line if my portfolio becomes too conservative I can look again at the good companies that I have decided to divest from. For now.

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I hear on the grapevine evergrande is almost bye bye. With geopolitics considered I would argue China is bigger risk than gme.

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