What’s up with the market?

There’s always other factors at play not just Covid. Inflation, staff shortage, supply delays; and the UK is just one tiny market in a global world. Just because the UK might be ‘getting on with it’ doesn’t mean other countries are. The world continues to fight against the Coronavirus.

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The s&p 500 is back where it was a month ago, I’d hardly call that crashing

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No crash has happened, just a natural fluctuation.

In fact over the past month I am up by 1.43%.VWRL is down 2.40%, S&P500 down 2.74%. Hardly a crash, isn’t a crash >10% ?

Good to see there are some emotional investors in here, I’ll buy when you cash out on the ‘crash’ :wink:

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I was just joking but yeah after watching the market I’m accustomed to the fluctuations. What I’m not fully updated about is global events causing fluctuations but I do try keep up hehe, so thanks for the Information.

Gas. All non-organic (conventional) food crops are grown with it, our houses and businesses are heated with it, our electricity is generated with it, it is used in a huge number of industrial processes and manufacturing and is an ingredient in paints and industrial chemicals.

Just like the loo roll crisis, the petrol crisis, the hospital crises the workforce crisis, the lorry crises etc. etc. an energy crisis, I imagine, will impact everything else, including share prices.

I’m new to investing and am getting into the habit of investing regularly, expecting dips and using them as opportunities, but still investing - maybe wisely, maybe not.

Part of my ethos is that if I leave my money in a company that I believe in, I am supporting it. If I want my investment to do well, when the company is struggling with a low share price, I buy some more and it helps them grow.

I’m finding the whole process quite fascinating and enjoyable. I can see why people get hooked on making money (not that I am)!

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Would you say lower duration is unlikely to carry on outperforming once we’re past the dislocation and into the hiking cycle proper? Because surveys are showing people are the most bullish on financials this year.

That depends on any further changes to the forward guidance provided by Fed, and once that’s priced in, focus would likely shift towards earnings growth (which will decelerate with inflationary pressures on cost structures in a lot of industries) and valuations (which are extremely stretched when you compare to historic multiples)

Point on valuations important - market is stretched, so it takes a lower level of shifting expectations to cause bigger ripples, like a stretched rubber band I guess (bad analogy maybe)

From a financials perspective, they are expected to continue to outperforming because there’s a double effect - net interest margins have room to improve (lower duration point) and further nominal earnings growth across the economy + consequent opportunity for deleveraging thanks to inflation + coming out of COVID

Not sure whether that theme will continue to play out all year though…feels like we’re kind of at a juncture here where things could just go sideways for a while, thoughts welcome!

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https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-fleet-news/2022/01/14/gridserve-ev-charging-price-hike-due-to-spiralling-costs?utm_source=aimtell&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=campaign-4276601

Shockers

I wouldn’t describe the past couple of weeks as a crash - though certain sectors have fallen into that bracket and therefore I’ve averaged down my holdings in relevant companies.

When there’s a bona-fide crash you’ll know about it.

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Perhaps not a crash but this does feel like the start of a bear market in US shares after a long time where they only went up.

What happens next depends on whether the fed sticks to its guns and follows through on tapering the easing of the last decade. If it does the US stock market is in for a rough correction IMO.

I don’t know if this is a trend people have noticed or agree with, but my UK stocks (BP, Rio Tinto, Direct Line, Aviva etc) are absolutely flying recently whereas my US ones (Microsoft, PayPal, Netflix, all my US REITs etc) are having a proper mare. Only thing keeping me afloat in the US is Mastercard, Visa and, bizarrely, WWE! (Shout out to Hulk Hogan; younger investors insert your more recent wrestler here :smile:).

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Return-Free Risk in US Stocks

As an alternative measure, the chart below shows our margin-adjusted P/E (MAPE), which has reached extremes easily beyond the 1929 and 2000 bubble peaks. Recall that the S&P 500 lagged Treasury bills from 1929-1947, 1966-1985, and 2000-2013. 50 years out of an 84-year period. When the investment horizon begins at extreme valuations, and doesn’t end at the same extremes, the retreat in valuations acts as a headwind that consumes the return that would otherwise be provided by dividends and growth in fundamentals. Do investors really imagine that the outcome from present extremes will be so different? Worse, do they imagine that loading up on speculative market risk will be rewarded with a “risk premium” regardless of the level of valuation?

Agreed when it comes to US REITs. I’ve got a position in $PLDand $STAG and both are at least 5% in the red.

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Yeah most of my US stocks are down in the last few days, (except Ford which is still flying) but my portfolio overall isn’t doing to bad because Shell, Bp and HSBC and a few others are coming back to me

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Hey Stav.

I noticed the better US shares are the ones I picked hoping that they had growth potential whatever the economy does. I wouldn’t necessarily say non-cyclical in nature but certainly essential to trade and commerce.
ASML, AMAT, LRCX

I also hold SNPS but this is dipping, maybe because while chips are essential to modern life, designing new ones while production demand outstrips supply may be a waste of money. Did I read that Sony are continuing to manufacture an old model Play Station because they can’t get chips for their current model? I feel it a good time to have stocks where customers are competing to have their product manufactured!

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Not going to lie, I’m proper chuffed with how BP and Shell have done a complete 180.

I’m even more chuffed that I bought the dip on BP the evening before tge day the price started shooting up.

Yea it was lucky and whatever, but I’m still happy with that one.

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So how’s everyone elses page looking mine’s pretty much back to what it was in July 2021 or some shit lol and that up by £25 was from free shares.

What I have noticed is I have put in 10x more cash since then and am still at the same profit almost at £29

:wink:

Mine been has come down a little since it reached a peak in November, but it’s still significantly higher than it was last July (more than 5K up since then) and I haven’t added a bean because I maxed my ISA contributions before then

That might sound like a brag, but If I go into insights and check performance I’m only slightly ahead of VWRL over the last year so I’m definitely no investing genius. I think staying mostly away from hyped or meme stocks has saved me from a big drop

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I’m in the red for nearly everything, I have softcat and the Kainos group and they have dropped quite significantly, as have Oxford Biomed and Oxford Nanopore, both are down nearly 20% for me. Hoping things improve for me! Might just be the sectors I’ve chosen to invest in.

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