I reread the FTs really nice summary from May and decided to exit my small ex-energy Commodity position that was 30+% up. Personally believe slowing China/US growth will hamper a broad “supercycle”, and certain of the most volatile moves such as timber and iron were caused by specific supply/demand dynamics, of which some have already started to reverse. I’m unsure of the “one last spike” in oil as demand may start reducing far faster than expected and there is actually plenty of spare capacity, especially at the stroke of OPEC’s pen. Agricultural commodities can only rise so far before new production is created or government/social unrest intervenes. Also mostly being driven by China at the moment and their population will start to decline soon. Although climate change will probably make weather and therefore prices more volatile.
Ultimately there’s only a solid bull case for copper and a few selected other metals and elements in extreme short supply so I’m keeping JLP for that exposure.
FT link: Markets weigh prospect of new commodities supercycle - Markets weigh prospect of new commodities supercycle | Financial Times via @FT