Diversification - how many stocks is too many?

If you take the time to read his story, you’ll find that his wife works and he has no ties to his home (US) as his father left the family when he was 8 and his mother committed suicide when he was 21.

I linked his blog to this thread to highlight the strategy of a portfolio with over 100+ stocks.

Personally, I’d be happy with the yield he’s getting, but dividend income investing is only part of my own overall strategy.

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You’re right I didn’t read it - as soon as I saw FIRE, a monetised blog and $14k a year I turned off.

But now you’ve told me his wife still works it’s the cherry on the cake! :rofl:

One thing I can agree on is FT makes it viable to have a portfolio with hundreds of stocks as dealing fees would make this impossible on most platforms.

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Warren Buffett said, ā€˜Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.’
Yet, he holds 60 stocks in his personal portfolio.

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By stocks do you mean publicly traded companies only? Or are you including in that group of 60 the companies BH has a 100% ownership like See’s Candies or Duracell?

The number of tradable stocks is lower than 60. Still high, above 30 or 40 I think.

The BH privately owned businesses are many, around 60. Dig a bit and you’ll find that he’s invested in an handful of sectors, namely: Finance and Insurance, Manufacturing, Energy, and a few others.

Also, many of the positions were acquired decades ago at favourable prices following events with negative impacts on the prices of those companies. Examples: American Express or Coca Cola.

He tends to keep his positions below the 10% threshold for regulatory reasons, although at times he goes beyond it.

He has a massive bankroll and avoids some sectors which he considers outside his circle of competence.

I pretty much doubt his diversification is protection against ignorance. I think it’s more likely a result of is tremendous success, and the resulting fact he has an enormous pile of money to allocate

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Firstly, he’s an avid supporter of ETFs, so I’m not sure this quote is taken in the right context.
Secondly, we are not Warren Buffet, so we’d be dumb not to diversify.

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I do find the whole ā€œhow many stocks is rightā€ quite comical to be honest :+1: I personally have lots but follow news A LOT and have a basic understanding of the fundamentals of most companies I invest in. What I do religiously follow though are my many interlinked spreadsheets that follow each company in many different ways.

It’s too complex to explain here but in principle I never get to much of one company and generally only buy extra when a dip is in place and always re-invest my dividends instantly. I am not interested in popular stocks and only bought a small GME, COIN and ARB just to be involved in the discussions :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

As I have many base stocks I get frequent dividends and this actually makes me think ā€œoh maybe I will just add some more cash to round that number upā€ each time I re-invest the dividend. This to me probably means my pot will grow X amount more than not using this system.

I have 5 rules to decide which stock to buy and they include are they in a dip? Are they looking good long term? X? Y? and Z? and don’t let emotion decide :+1:

That being said I do believe the biggest reason people lose out is simple really and that is buying popular/peaking stocks. Also, greed is probably pretty high as well :+1: I aim for 10-15% and am not interested in more as a driver which means I can play in a safer environment. Will I become an instant millionaire? No, but I will increase my holdings at a very enjoyable rate :+1:

Is many better than few? I would say both plans can work well but the player needs to ensure they are actually watching their stocks values and NOT get involved emotionally.

Anyhow that’s just my 2p worth :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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The benefits of diversification seem to plateau at 20 stocks. I’m happy with 10 stocks as my portfolio is not very large

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That is RISK % and not very sensible stat to be honest as it really depends on what 20 stocks someone buys :man_facepalming: If someone buys 20 crypto then this is 100% BS stat :+1:

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Actually, it’s quite accurate. Risk is split into unsystematic risk and systematic risk (market risk). Only the former can be reduced by diversification, that’s why it can’t go below the market risk line in the image. In academic circles 17 is usually quoted as the threshold where diversification decreases unsystematic risk so little that it’s not worth buying more stocks for the reason of diversification alone. :+1:
It’s about stocks, not crypto. So you’re right there.

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OK put another way buying 20 stocks in crypto companies or 20 in a gas guzzling industry or very high risk is not where risk plateaus. This is a generic argument that won’t really work on all case and my point is people do buy stupidly and can easily buy 20 stupid stocks :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Edit - and the chart says RISK and my point was that the below is a wrong take-away. There are more benefits than just RISK :+1:

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Trying to match the potential future returns of trackers would mean index investors stay consistent and follow a strategy because history hints that this decade ā€˜mayā€˜ produce lower gains yoy. So selling at the wrong time or not buying the dip could potentially wipe out the gains of that year.

So with that piece of speculative non-provable insight going forward, the case for building a diversified position of 10-25 solid dividend growth stocks seems legit. At least, you really, really have to know the potential future valuation of the company & sector purchased.

My personal aim is for no more than 4 etf’s and 12 individual stocks coupled with a longterm strategy.

Buffet’s comments are great reminders that if you know what you are trying to achieve, even one or two stocks can kick you into space. I mean, look at Elon and many others, they have like one investment and go all in.

It’s not an intuitive concept at all, I agree. Risk here is volatility/variance. But you could show all this mathematically.
Since we can only decrease unsystematic risk or risk that is based on microeconomic decisions, this even applies to an all out oil portfolio - the decrease may be a little slower, but it still applies. This is based on the mathematical fact that adding more stocks with lower than perfect correlation lowers the volatility/variance. And since it’s microeconomic (company specific) factors that are being targeted, there can’t be perfect correlation between assets. This means any form of diversification lowers unsystematic risk and by that lowers total risk.

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Diversification is pretty much the origin of investing, the limited liability company was largely created to satisfy the desire to gain the benefits of trading ships while minimising the risk associated with the loss of a particular vessel.

Through partial ownership of multiple ships investors could gain exposure to the systematic risks of trade (macro demand, supply etc) and the rewards that come with that while mitigating the risk of a single vessel being lost at sea or a particular cargo becoming worthless.

I think there is some confusion here as the subject of the thread can be interpreted as:

  • How many stocks should I have exposure to (in total)
  • How many individual stocks should I hold

For the former it’s worth bearing in mind that BRK has trailed SPY (and I know that’s the toppiest comparison to make) by ~37% these last 2 years. So by not having broad exposure you need to be comfortable accepting the risk of significant underperformance, no matter how good you are.

For the later, I think it’s hard to research more than around 10 stocks and it’s easy to gain exposure to the rest through ETFs.

I think this quote is good, but everyone who reads it probably thinks ā€˜I’m not ignorant’ regardless if they are:

  • A fund with an annual $5m research budget
  • A top sell-side analyst on a $500k salary
  • A CFA who spent 20 hrs on their model
  • An individual who read a few articles
  • A redditor who saw the ticker in a WSB post with some :rocket: :rocket: :rocket:

Compared to the aggregate knowledge of all market participants everyone is ignorant to some extent. So I agree with the quote, but perhaps not the originally intended meaning of it.

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This includes prices going up :nerd_face:

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Whenever the ā€œshould I diversifyā€ question comes up, diversification proponents are always quick to give the Buffett quote ā€œdiversification is protection against ignoranceā€ - but I always feel it’s used the wrong way, as if owning more than ~10 stocks makes you ignorant - which I wholeheartedly disagree with. Personally, I’ve always took it to mean ā€œit’s better to own 15 great businesses than 15 great ones plus 15 okay ones. BUT it’s better to own 30 great businesses than 15 great businesses.ā€ In one of his oldest interviews, I vividly remember him saying ā€œif you buy great businesses for less than they’re worth, and you own a bunch of them, you basically can’t loseā€ - a cheeky reference to the benefits of diversification and value, if you ask me.

And another thing: Is it just me, or do Investors naturally diversify anyway?! If there were only 5-15 businesses I liked, i’d grow old waiting for buying opportunities - I often find myself forced to sift through the market a bit for value. On the other hand, I’ll never be one of those investors that has 100+ companies in my portfolio - there simply aren’t that many great businesses (that I understand) out there.

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If you can realiably pick 15 great businesses then why not just pick the single greatest business and put all of your money in that for maximum gains?

Because every company can have sudden unexpected catastrophes that could seriously disrupt the business, so putting all your eggs in one basket is far riskier than investing in multiple businesses.

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Exactly. Who is to say that the 15 that you have picked are truly great?

Unless you have a crystal ball 30 great businesses isn’t really any different from 15 great and 15 okay businesses. Both are good because the diversification spreads the risk. The businesses that are okay might even outperform the great businesses.

I think the point about the 15 is that it takes a lot of time to properly research companies enough to have the edge over other people, so I think it’s a compromise between having a small number so you can spend enough time to ensure they’re still quality picks and large enough for diversity in case one has big problems.

Specifically, he’s saying that if half the companies are just average because you didn’t research them well, they’re pulling down the rest of portfolio where you did put in the effort.

As you get to riskier companies, you need to diversify over more companies, because you might be looking for 500% growth in one company and the rest failing entirely compared to stable markets where you might get 0-20% growth across all of them.

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