Yeah I think its inevitable Tesla will touch thirteen figures at some point but the rerating has been so violent that something akin to 2014-19 where it just trades in a range for years while fundamentals catch up might happen. To be honest the energy revenue estimates in the Forbes piece are very conservative and a large part of the current valuation is based of FSD so tesla can “get” to any valuation you want.
Your second point is interesting. Apple’s appreciation has been backed by essentially their entire cash flow (which is obviously substantial), you could say the underlying business overall is fairly neutral. Tesla’s appreciation is and will for a long time be driven by expectations and of increasingly being a safe haven. At some point Tesla will just accumulate too much cash on its BS that it can’t even use for M&A or to pay Elon his outrageous $56bn compensation plan (it already has $20bn after the last raise), so some will have to end up being distributed somehow. Even at today’s price the yield would be negligible, even lower than Apples.
To 1 - As an example I’m currently over 10x and keeping for now as I believe it can go higher.
If you think that the vast majority of people will drive EVS in 10-25 years, then this is the way to hold ev stocks. Clearly, the combustion engine car has got few more miles to drive, then the scrappage scheme will come into play.
They always have been open to other manufacturers but there is a reason they haven’t used them so far:
‘…Note that a company using Tesla’s patented technology is not only giving up the ability to bring an action against Tesla for patent infringement, but any form of intellectual property infringement…’
Currently it’s the Wild West out there and charging standardisation is seriously needed before EV mass adoption happens - given the supercharger network it would make sense for OEMs to make use of it but there is also a lot of pride involved. The consumer is the one that currently suffers.
As an EV owner I’m very happy with my charging options and I’ve saved a fortune so I don’t agree with you there. My main issue has been getting repairmen out to fix my home charging point. I see no reason why anyone can’t buy one today and have any issue apart from the cost.
The point is Tesla doesn’t want to allow other manufacturers unless on their terms which are deliberately high bar. If he’s suggesting a relaxation of that policy in 2021 then it is significant as they have ten years on everyone else in terms of infrastructure.
Really? What about people living in flats, tower blocks, densely populated areas with limited on street parking? EVs right now only work for those with a personal driveway in my opinion so I see huge limitations as to who can own an EV. I physically can’t own one right now as I’d have no means of charging it (I really want an EV so have extensively looked into it).
By Wild West I mean I have driven an EQC from the UK to Germany via France, Belgium and the Netherlands. I had to abandon the car in France, head to my hotel in Belgium and drive back the next morning to then continue my journey. Instead of one/two days in an ICE car it took 5. Now that’s a really stupid usecase and literally doesn’t apply to 99% of (potential) EV owners. The point is that there is no standard currently, I had to download 5 different apps for the journey and some charging stations I simply couldn’t use as it required a membership you couldn’t just create on the fly (what is wrong with a simple contactless payment?!).
Again, if you only drive a few miles each day and you know exactly where you can charge the car this is no problem but any longer journey can easily become a hassle for no reason.
They almost all have car parks so it’s not the best example i think. The best example is anyone living in a house without a driveway, which is a huge number of people.
Street charging isn’t feasible in quite a large number of places, and where it is possible the number of chargers you could put in are limited (and likely prone to breaking), so it leaves them stranded.
You’re right, street charging isn’t feasible. What will be is people topping up wherever they go which underlines the importance of having a wide network of chargers in all locations, as well as a smaller number of rapid chargers on key routes to replace the overnight charging that most other EV drivers will be able to do. I also think a large part is reducing the number of cars on the roads, I don’t think a situation where we have more cars in ten years than we have now is in any way a good thing.
This isn’t even the biggest problem in my opinion. The problem is cost. Those who have a driveway are set, they’ll get their low price electric charging.
If you have to charge every time you go to the shops or stop somewhere you’re at a huge disadvantage. A lot of public chargers aren’t as cheap and a lot of them have connection costs making them significantly more expensive than charging at home.
I agree, this is up to government at the end of it. Middle class homeowners already get subsidies for home installation so those who cannot must get support for their energy use on the go.
This is spot on, I was shocked to be charged €50 for a full ‘tank’ of electricity at a public charger, this was actually much worse than paying for fuel if you compare to mileage you’d get in an equivalent ICE car. That charger was a rip off of course but they are not as cheap as people believe. Not sure what current Tesla Supercharger cost is though.
Thanks, for a Model 3 that works out roughly as 15 miles per pound (74kWh battery @ approx 450km real world range) which I think is pretty fair - much cheaper than any petrol or diesel I have owned.
That’s like 6p a mile, it’s about half what my Toyota cost in petrol. but considering the difference in cost of buying the car that really isn’t all that good, People talk about EVs as if they are virtually free to run, but that’s not the case
We’ll need to see if model 3’s last 500K. As I’ve pointed out before ICE cars end of life isn’t usually because the engine is worn out. Scrap yards are full of cars with perfectly good engines
