Roubini is on Bloomberg - Are you a robot? right now.
He compares it to a 
hitting the 
and calls people “delusional”, worse than 1929-1933.
10 days ago:
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I think the presenter in NY cut him off not because of the TV commercial break but because he wants to get up, leave the studio, and start buying canned food for the next 10 weeks.
Roubini: the markets cannot price uncertainty, they can price risk, and currently things are not Normally distributed.
Remember the Gaussian bell-shaped distribution from maths classes? It’s widely used to predict the future despite the advances in machine learning. (Think non-linear function approximation.)
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After Bill Ackman, the hedge fund manager, yesterday on CNBC said that hell was coming.
It’s all doom and gloom. Time to buy some rose tinted glasses. 
“The week will start with US and global equities down another 2% to 3%, credit spreads blowing up especially for high-yield & credit markets seized and frozen, 10-year Treasury yields even lower, and oil prices sharply down," he tweeted.”
“Roubini’s dire predictions seem conservative in hindsight.”
Dafuq? If Dr Doom was too optimistic, we must be in dire straits. 
Do you mean Bill Ackman?
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BoA: tis here
Our computers are a little faster now.
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Unemployment numbers may get worse than during the great financial crisis depression circa 1929-1933ish. There’s been a stream of news about layoffs everywhere, so that could be a sign of how fast things are moving.
During the “big one” almost a century ago, a lot of people started losing jobs from the start of 1929 until the New Deal. The official numbers showed the rate went from 3.2% to 24.9% over four years. (see: Historical US Unemployment Rate by Year)
Will we see the metric grow from 3.5% (2019) to 30% in a matter of a few months? As per QZ’s article:
In a Sunday interview with Bloomberg, Bullard [president of the St. Louis branch of the US Federal Reserve Bank] predicted that the unemployment rate will reach 30% in the second quarter, and gross domestic product will fall by 50%.
US unemployment was at its worst during the peak of the Great Depression in 1933, when the jobless rate spiked to 24.5%. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, US unemployment peaked at 10.2% in October 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(Read here: Coronavirus could leave 30% of US workers jobless, Fed president says)
We are waiting for March numbers in April:
CNBC:
Economists expect April to be the first reporting month when the damage starts to show up.
Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million.
The worst month during the financial crisis saw nonfarm payrolls decrease by 800,000.
…
Upcoming weekly jobless claims will shatter the standards set even during the worst points of the financial crisis and the early-1980s recession, with Bank of America forecasting a total of 3 million when the number is released Thursday.
While the headline unemployment rate is highly unlikely to approach the 24.9% during the Great Depression, it very well could be the highest in almost 40 years
As shared by @saf (in The Great Lockdown Recession - yes we're here - #124 by saf) - take a look at these blog posts that keep track of unemployment numbers per state in the US: Coronavirus storyline #10: unemployment – The Irregular Economic Review
22 March 2020:
For the 29 states I have data, there is a total of 1,822,979 new unemployment claims over the past week. However, of the 29 states, some states only report claims for a few days. If I assume the average claims of the non-reported days are the same, this comes out to 2,800,000 claims for the week for the 29 states. This is about 2.5% of the total civilian labor force in these states. Applying this number to the non-reporting states, this gives a total of 4,146,920 new unemployment claims for the week.
During the last recession the US unemployment reached 9.9%:
(posted by @Prince here: The Great Lockdown Recession - yes we're here - #7 by Prince)
More:
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Guys
The video on the link shows the economic machine by ray dalio and explains to anybody wanting know the likelihood of what is going on and what can be expected. - teaser, could be dubbed the lost decade’.
(cashisking)
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Grab a large drink.
Mark My Words EP - by Professor Roubini:
- 24 March 2020:
- 17 March 2020:
- 11 March 2020:
- 9 March 2020:
- 28 February 2020:
- 26 February 2020:
- 27 January 2020:
- 24 December 2019:
- 6 September 2019:
- 8 July 2019:
- 2 July 2019: “Roubini: It’s a Scary Time for the Global Economy”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-economy-pmi-idUSKBN21L13L
Britain’s dominant services industry suffered its sharpest fall by far since the survey began in 1996. Its index sank to 34.5 from February’s 53.2, and was also weaker than the March flash reading of 35.7.
Sterling weakened almost half a cent against the dollar to its lowest since March 31 after the news, which was only a bit less bleak than the equivalent euro zone survey.
Andrew Wishart, an economist at Capital Economics, said the PMIs were probably underestimating the hit.
“We are forecasting a 15% fall in GDP in Q2, a larger fall in output than in the financial crisis or the Great Depression,” he said.
“Our base case is that the recession won’t be as protracted as either of those episodes. But evidence that unemployment is shooting up despite the government response raises the risk that the recovery takes longer than we expect.”
Tim Moore, economics director at IHS Markit, said job losses had been mitigated by firms’ use of a government scheme to temporarily put staff on leave, rather than fire them.
Britain’s government has said it will pay 80% of the wages of workers who are furloughed by companies.
“However, employment levels across the service sector still dropped at the fastest pace for more than a decade, reflecting some forced redundancies and the non-replacement of departing staff amid widespread hiring freezes,” Moore said.
…Data on Wednesday showed around 950,000 people in the United Kingdom have applied for welfare benefits in the two weeks since Johnson shut down swathes of the economy.
The PMI survey showed the biggest drop in new work among services firms and the bleakest business expectations in more than 20 years of data collection.
Technology services were the only area to signal a rise in business activity - possibly reflecting the stay-at-home order for many people - but new workloads for tech firms dropped more quickly than at any time since 2011.
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It’s looking pretty bleak right now 
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The International Monetary Fund sees the world economy suffering its worst recession since the Great Depression this year, with emerging markets and low-income nations in Africa, Latin America and Asia at particularly high risk.
The IMF’s baseline outlook is for a partial recovery in the global economy in 2021 if the pandemic fades in the second half of this year to allow a gradual lifting of containment measures, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in the text of a speech set to be delivered on Thursday. She stressed that uncertainty about the coronavirus duration means things may wind up being even worse.
The International Monetary Fund sees the world economy suffering its worst recession since the Great Depression this year, with emerging markets and low-income nations in Africa, Latin America and Asia at particularly high risk.
The IMF’s baseline outlook is for a partial recovery in the global economy in 2021 if the pandemic fades in the second half of this year to allow a gradual lifting of containment measures, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said in the text of a speech set to be delivered on Thursday. She stressed that uncertainty about the coronavirus duration means things may wind up being even worse.
The IMF calculates that governments around the world have taken fiscal actions amounting to about $8 trillion, Georgieva said in a preview of key fund reports due to be released during next week’s meetings, including the World Economic Outlook.
Feels like we are not far off now.
https://www.leggmason.com/global/campaigns/clearbridge-aor-recession-indicator-tool.html
If you adjust the sliders to reflect the current situation based on publicly available information and some forward looking factors again based on current publically available information, the dial is well into the red on that gauge.
Good to know Legg are so on the money with our money! 
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The International Monetary Fund predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns.
In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.
That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.
…
In a further sign of pessimism, the IMF sketched out three alternative scenarios in which the virus lasted longer than expected, returned in 2021 or both. A lengthier pandemic would wipe 3% off GDP this year compared to the baseline, while protraction plus a resumption next year would mean 8% less output than projected in 2021, it said.“This crisis is like no other,” Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a foreword to its semi-annual report. “Like in a war or a political crisis, there is continued severe uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the shock.”
As with the virus’s reach, the economic hit is sweeping. In the U.S., gross domestic product is expected to contract 5.9%, compared with a 2% expansion in its last global outlook in January. It may grow 4.7% next year, the IMF said. The euro area will probably shrink 7.5% in 2020 and rxpand 4.7% in 2021, it said.
“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF said. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”
The grim projections are a stark reversal from the IMF’s outlook less than two months ago. On Feb. 19, the fund told Group of 20 finance chiefs that “global growth appears to be bottoming out.” Three days later, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicted the virus would likely cut just 0.1 percentage point from the fund’s global growth forecast for this year, although she acknowledged “more dire scenarios” were being studied.
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