What did everyone think about E3 announcements? I think Navi is more or less what I expected, but Zen 2 looks like it is going to crush i5-i9 if performance and price is delivered.
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AMD is on the rise, how many people have bought shares?
Nothing interesting for me coming out of E3 for AMD. Already expected them to tie up the next gen consoles.
Only interesting news I got from E3 was Cyberpunk 2077 is due out in April 2020, which is earlier than I expected. I might go in again with CDR.
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Would people invest today in AMD?
I got some at the beginning of April, Nearly 30% up. Happy with that 
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A good return, I was kicking myself at missing out! I think just like the Qualcomm it will rise sharply, then come down again.
No, Qualcomm is going up and down due to anti-trust/court cases. Not really an AMD concern.
So you think AMD is now on the rise for the foreseeable future?
Thatās a very expensive stock! I canāt help but think that Nvidia at a PE of 28 is a better investment, particularly at this stage in the business cycle
Thereās a couple of big pieces of news that have driven it up. Microsoft are going to put AMD chips in XBoxes, and the word is that the new Ryzen chips are far superior to Intel crop of CPUās
However investors know all this now and there may be a bit of over exuberance in the current share price
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Iāve sold my shares today, I might buy them back if they drop back a bit.
I think given what Iāve seen from investor sentiment weāre going to have a minor sell-off here. The combination of Stadia, consoles, server, zen 2 and Navi - all the good news is already here. Maybe if there is some bad news for $NVDA, and central banks continue to appease markets I can see it approaching all time highs at ~ $45 but its unlikely (ignoring Intel as, well, can you get any worse?).
Iām quite bearish on NVDIA though, purely on a gaming market share basis: everything from AMDās open source and soon to be cross platform ray-tracing standard to Intel entering the market in a few years points to lower revenues. If you think autonomy and big data is the future then I guess its a good buy.
This is interesting thank you. What about chips and their use in autonomous cars? I gather Nvidia are ahead on this, or at least are very competitive. My point I suppose is chips are used in more than just gaming, but I donāt know where volumes or profits will flow from.
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Iām just interested in other peopleās thoughts on this @ $33 now we have Q2 results coming up, Zen 2/Navi, Stadia deploying Q3ish and server revenue yet to be realised.
From what Iāve seen a lot of people seem to think the market has already priced in 2019 EPS. A few others seem to suggest 2020 EPS hasnāt, or that AMD may beat expectations.
Consensus forward EPS is currently 0.91, thats produces an intriguing PE of 36.4, slightly higher than NVIDIAās trailing, but much higher than Intelās forward PE of 9 - clearly the market is pricing in the swallowing of Intelās market share.
Whatās everyoneās thoughts on the Zen and Navi launches btw!
AMD valuation looks stretched @ c.70x EV/EBITDA. Is it possible that the growth opportunities youāve outlined are already priced in?
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You need CPUs and GPUs. The latter is more specialized and with the rise of machine learning since 2012, GPUs (or TPUs and IPUs such as those by Google Cloud and Graphcore) are getting more customized for matrix-on-matrix multiplications for AI research and applications (see NVidiaās lineup for non-gamers).
The chip market has a lot of competition. Apple make their own, Google make their own TPUs, Tesla is making their own (moving away from NVidia), for example. And AMD are still nowhere near in the lucrative deep learning (āAIā) marketāthink data centers for cloud providersācompared with NVidia and its CUDA tech. Getting software languages in general to talk to specialized hardware via compilers is not easy.
P.S. The AGI startup OpenAI used CPUs and GPUs to train the agent to play Dota 2 video game at a super human levelāscaling the hardware was key to their performance:
(from their August 2018 blog where GCPāGoogle Cloud):
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AMD lowers guidance, down 8% today.
Iām still in long term. Was a bit wary after the price cutting with Nvidiaās āsuperā range.
Iām riding this out as well the console launches later this year, and the fact that AMD market is booming in Asia looks promising
Holding on for dear life here! Joking aside, my appetite for risk is pretty high right now, so will ride it out. If my portfolio was bigger, Iād be a bit more concerned
I agree with that. But I think one potential advantage of AMD is that it is a more diversified business than f.e. NVIDIA. Yes, Nvidia has more market share in the GPU market, but AMD is currently beating Intel in the CPU market in terms of technology which should/might provide an increased cash flow to compete with NVIDIA in the long run.