Also, I thought they were due to report after the close today?
I donāt think the stock is liking that, nor the $35bn purchase price.
Yeah I thought the ER was tonight as well. This does not look good - I was planning to unwind quite a lot of AMD calls today before the ER.
Purely on the results though its got to be impressive. Guidance for FY revenue is $9.5bn, looking at roughly $1.1bn net (so 80x this years earnings at premarket price). Intel ER clearly showed that theyāre starting to struggle in data centre. Then after the Xilinx transaction they will have another $3bn sales and ~$1bn profit after efficiencies. Starting to look cheap againā¦
Yup Iām even more optimistic long term now. Although I think theyāve overpaid for Xilinx that doesnāt matter in the long run, it just hurts my stupid short term plays (my calls are long dated anyway, so now I missed the chance to sell before the ER I might just let some ride into 2021).
For the fourth quarter of 2020, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $3.0 billion
This wish certainly came true, looks like they are solidifying massive DC gains already and thatās on Zen 2.
I really hope AMD have secured a load of TSMCās N5 capacity as I honestly think the number of EUV wafers they can buy is the only limit on their revenue until at least 2022 now.
At this point even if Intel magically fix all their fab problems overnight there just isnāt enough time to buy and install the capacity from ASML. I think ASMLās 4Q ER is going to be critical, if we donāt see at least 5 EUV units shipping to NA I think that means Intel is going to quit the foundry game.
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AMD is taking money from intel.
Unusual options activity today, someone is absolutely loading up on Nov/Dec 90Cs and thank god it doesnāt seem to be WSB. Perhaps ahead of some more analyst upgrades / Milan news 
Looks like analyst upgrades. Most are at $100 now. Iām really tempted to buy Xilinx to get that 10% discount theyāre trading at to the conversion ratio.
Iām not sure what Lisa told CS today, but the share price seems to like it, possibly related but a lot more December options activity, huge amount of 98Cs being traded.
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Some ramblings on AMD as it sits near ATH (likely because Milan news is starting to hot up with corresponding upgrades from analysts)
Charlie from SemiAccurate had a call with Susquehanna yesterday, generally positive themes but nothing particularly new:
The biggest news/rumour is further delays (~2Q22) to Sapphire Rapids which means Milan wonāt even be competing with it (although Milan is probably is probably still better). Sapphire Rapids will probably end up competing with Genoa which is going to be incredibly painful for Intel.
Intelās 7nm process is still in doubt, as is its outsourcing partner (although we know they have some TSMC N7 wafers ordered), and CEO (allegedly).
Charlie is now projecting AMDās leadership extends to at least 2024/2025 based on current roadmaps.
My main worry now is how Intelās outsourcing decision will impact AMD, TSMC are already taking advantage of the wafer supply constraint:
AMD really need some good news to come out of Samsung, long term they need the foundries to be competitive, especially if Intel goes fabless/less-fab
Yeah honestly I just stay away from the whole fab end now, was in TSMC briefly but its just too unpredictable for me at least and things can change so rapidly. The more time goes on the more I think Xilinx will turn out an excellent long-term purchase though.
As for Intel I honestly think they should just jettison the x86 business at this point, at least itāll give them the opportunity to focus on the rest of their portfolio.
Lisa Suās keynote at CES is in ~7 hours
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Earnings strong as expected and strong 2021 guidance. Seriously whoever has to come up with guidance at AMD has the easiest job in the world right now - count how many wafers you have for the year and multiply by margin, as you know youāll sell literally every chip that comes out of them.
Yet another upgrade from Susquehanna as a kicker as well.
Itās simple incredible what Lisa has achieved over the past few years: real competition in desktop, mobile, graphics and data centre with a roadmap to leadership. Great news for consumers and investors.
Iām not too worried about how the market reacts in the short term, but Iāve preemptively bought a new PC today (Ryzen of course) to celebrate.
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Given that this forum (and literally every other one) has rapidly become more pro-wsb and actual wsb is a bit of a dumpster fire right now I thought Iād share a decent AMD DD post that might otherwise be missed. It feels like the sub has gone full circle, given AMD was a WSB darling a couple of years ago, but the bull case hasnāt really changed.
Donāt take other peopleās DCFs at face value, question their assumptions for growth and multipliers to decide if they are making a credible case.
(Also donāt worry the title says technicals but itās actually light on astrology, no crayons)
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Nice to have a classic chips/semiconductor fundamentals post from our in-house expert Cameron. Iāve missed these!
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Ive taken this dip as an opportunity to open a position.
I just donāt how Intel stops the bleeding for CPU market share, and whilst I donāt think AMD is going to challenge NVIDIA for mindshare like they have Intel, I feel the crypto/datacenter/PC markets are all operating with a huge demand for GPUās way past what NVIDIA alone can satisfy. That alone means AMD will get a fair chunk of pie they potentially wouldnāt otherwise.
Itās also reassuring the semi-custom (consoles) is probably going to be a healthy business for the next 2-3 years at least.
Holding a decent ~Ā£2k in AMD until it hits the $110ās, and some Mid-march OTM calls.
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An interesting analysis
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Good piece on the advances in die interconnectivity including 3D stacking.
I know a lot of the article is from a TSMC angle but I think itās more relevant to AMD, given their chiplet leadership they will be best positioned to take advantage of improvements in interconnect density.
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Anyone know why itās jumped nearly 6% today? Iām not complaining, itās one of my 5% portfolio stocks, Iāve just not seen anything thatād suggest a reason. nVidia is also doing very well today, but theyāve had a couple of great days in a row.
RayJay gave $100 PT (I think thatās 19 >$100 PTs now)
Thereās a bit more chatter about Epycās significant performance lead, although at this point I donāt think thatās news to anyone.
I think the big news today was TSMCās earnings, which at a high level were basically as expected - good. If you look a little closer there are two interesting details:
7nm revenues grew while 5nm fell slightly
HPC had a huge uptick and smartphones declined
Given that AMD is almost certainly the biggest 7nm customer and sit within the HPC space this means they probably managed to get a load of wafers. As lots of the lower margin AMD products are sold out everywhere, its reasonable to assume AMD have done the sensible thing and focused on high-margin datacentre products.
So I guess the uptick is optimism around AMDās 1Q earnings, particularly in datacentre.
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