Covid-19: layoffs at startups, opportunities, adapt or die - "only the paranoid survive"

(Graphcore partnered with Microsoft, should be well-funded. They’re competing with Nvidia on the deep learning hardware side.)

An open letter to the Chancellor published today and signed by the U.K.’s biggest “scale-ups” — later-stage, highly valued, but still venture-backed (and often loss-making) startups such as Deliveroo, Benevolent AI, Citymapper, Graphcore and Bulb — urged the U.K. government to make room to provide lending options to companies like theirs and other startups.

They are specifically calling for a special task force to be created to consider how to build lending schemes for companies like theirs, as well as to alter the rules on the three big schemes that have already been announced to accommodate them, and give them the same access as other businesses.

Countries like France and Germany have accounted for this business disparity. They have created special provisions for lending to startups in response to the COVID-19 economic and social upheaval, and respectively there have been programs backed with $4.3 billion and $2.2 billion in government money put into place.

But the three main U.K. initiatives that have been announced — Coronavirus Large Business Interruption Loan Scheme, the Covid Corporate Financing Facility and the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme — have basic requirements that effectively rule out scaled-up and smaller startups from applying.

These include provisions around having established credit ratings for public companies (as in the case of the bigger loan schemes), or financing that is too small (as in the case of the smaller loan schemes), or the scaled-up companies have annual revenues that are too high (both the CBILS and CLBILS schemes have respective turnover thresholds of £45 million and £500 million).

In the meantime, the U.K. government has made small moves to encourage startups to continue building in a more focused way — for example, last week it announced £20 million in grants to businesses that are building better “resiliency” products to help companies better weather crises like this in the future. But for companies that regularly see revenues (and corresponding expenses and losses) in the tens and hundreds of millions, grants in the tens of thousands of dollars are like putting drops of water into the ocean.

But with startups accounting for some 30,000 businesses and some 300,000 workers in the U.K., and significant sums toward the country’s GDP and operations, it seems like a big problem to ignore for too long.

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I nearly choked when I saw that letter. They are so out of touch with reality, or just trying to pull a fast one. I don’t really think they are affected much by the rona.
If you have costs that are 10 times more or so gross revenue and 20 plus times or more gross margin then the reduction in revenues for a few months should not make a lot of difference to runway for the massive cash most raised in last 3 to 12 months.
Very different to a small to medium sized company that has turned the corner and making modest positive cashflow and profits that will get decimated as they will have been looking at runway including positive cashflow from ongoing operations. In my view they are the ones that should get helped first as they are the ones that will in short and medium term also create more jobs

Two fintech unicorn outliers are TransferWise with 45 live vacancies, and Revolut with 324 live vacancies, as the two companies seem to be hiring at the same or similar levels to pre-coronavirus crisis. Unsurprisingly, subscription delivery services Gousto, Hellofresh and Oddbox are all scaling up efforts to bring on new employees after likely seeing an uptick in product demand. Amazon (1,000+ live vacancies) and Deliveroo (100+ live vacancies) have also ramped up hiring.

“My sense is that larger companies like Monzo… have furloughed staff with the view that it’s better to take action now, rather than suffer death by a thousand cuts over the coming months or be forced to take more drastic action in the summer,” says Hunter.

“The vast majority of sub-100 staff tech companies are in a very different situation. This is ‘survive or die’ territory for them — hiring freezes and furloughing are a necessity, not a luxury. Fundamentally, the complete uncertainty around how long this will last means any startup with any doubt around their funding position for the next 6-12 months is going on the offensive. Battening down the hatches and pausing non-core innovation appears to be the M.O. for the moment.”

According to the study, marketing, social media and I.T. sales jobs in tech companies have been the hardest hit, with advertised vacancies dropping over 60% month-on-month. Unsurprisingly, tech companies operating within the hospitality and travel sectors have, in the majority of cases, all but paused recruitment, according to the data.

In contrast, Engineering jobs have weathered the storm the best, with hiring for C++, Java, Ruby and PHP developers down only 20%.

“I think there are a few different factors at play and this is driving the decision making,” says Hunter. “What’s your cash runway, are you able to control your burn rate, what is the likelihood that your sector will bounce back in the next 3-6 months? So funding and cash discipline certainly plays a part. If I was running a travel booking startup right now, even if I had a healthy looking bank balance, I would be planning for the worst”.

Meanwhile, Hunter points out that nobody really knows when the crisis will be over, forcing VCs, CEOs and founders to “hedge” as best as they can, and try to plan for the recovery and the likely upside that will come with it.

Seems like Monzo is locking a lot of the recent cash raised into its war chest Monzo Furlough and shuts down Las Vegas

It looks to me like they’re taking an aggressive approach based on making the money they have now last, rather than assuming they can grab more funding or bailouts later down the line. It’s an approach that is painful at first, but should mean people can get on with work from that point on and steer a course through the crisis.

The alternative they’re trying to avoid would be a demoralising round of cuts after cuts, which would impact on the productivity of the remaining workers as they’d be wondering if they’ll be next to be cut.

Leastwise, I think those are the theories, anyway.

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What I don’t really understand is that with guys like that the gross margin is irrelevant to the cashflow and net margin currently and presumably for the next couple years so the impact of a top line revenue reduction should not be significant and money would have been raised for x months runway and the lost revenue probably affects that by one month or two months max.
I know that the implications of this monster maybe that they can’t raise so easy down the line at a valuation they are happy with, but that’s something that they and their backers have created by investing at such insane valuations.
With the cash they do have unless they have spent a huge amount already setting up US etc and licensing then I would think its an opportunity to accelerate getting new customers on board while competition is low or maybe they think Revolut have more powder.
If they furlough people then any of those employees would (or should unless rules are changed) lose the benefits of EMI share options that I would hope they would have been told before agreeing to furlough as that might be a big costs to early employees of some of these Fintechs is there is ever a exit.
In most case I agree its best to be prudent and preserve cash, but don’t really get it here.
On the other side if they see a exit as a way out of this by acquisition you will get more by having 200m in the bank to keep going for 12 months than a runway of 2 months left in a firesale so its also a hedge on that side I guess

Think this is a pretty good article on some of the challenges these guys already had coming

Interesting article. I note in the second paragraph it addresses why Monzo are locking a lot of their cash into its war chest: “Monzo, […] is said to be eyeing up to $130m later this year (partly to meet capital requirements)”

Then was rather thrown by this line: “Monzo will now have to prove they can generate organic growth rather than relying on venture capital-funded advertising, says Alessandro Hatami”.
I’m not sure how closely Mr Hatami has looked at Monzo, as I’ve barely seen them advertise at all. :sweat_smile:

Can’t disagree with the underlying argument that it’s getting towards time for fintech banks to start moving away from promises towards actual results (and one throwaway paragraph seems to suggest Starling are in the right place for this now: “Overall, investors’ attention is shifting away from pure business-to-consumer (B2C) banks to those with proprietary banking-as-a-service (BaaS) technology, says Stewart.”)

Yep , I think people are starting to see more value in the underlying tech that is driving this fintech rather than the retail facing promoters who face the marketing costs, churn and customer support. Valuations and money going into stuff like Currency Cloud and Railsbank has started to creep up and I think there B2B model is way more appealing as they also have the upside on volumes if the promoters are successful without the massive CAC and servicing costs.
Only a few winners at the promoter/retail end and I think we may see the benefit of consolidation now by some of the larger ones to reduce CAC , open more possible regulatory footprints and also do it before there would be any regulatory concerns that they were being anti competitive by merging.
Could be boards room like day one at Starling again :wink:
Out of all of them I do like Starling mosts as way more concentrated early investor profile and Anne Boden has been around the block a bit more than some of the others (in a positive way) . Just feel they have been building product and spending less on PR until the product is ready and market demand and target user is understood.
The colour of the Monzo card was genius move though

Another great B2B story - Stripe (online payments):

“Businesses that deferred moving online or had no reason to operate online have made the leap practically overnight,” says John Collison, co-founder and president of Stripe.

Also, this London-based identity/compliance startup seems to be doing well with facial recognition (convolutional neural nets) and, I guess, SQL databases storing your gov data:

Among B2C fintechs, I see Square with its Cash App as fast-moving megatrain - payments (B2B) with hardware and software solutions, wealth management (banking, stock trading, bitcoin trading, etc). PayPal with Venmo are also hot but they are an established entity and PayPal seems bloated and “old-school” (it probably still has some of Musk and co.'s code in its repos).

Timeless advice for this century in one book:

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Stripe and Square are very very good as they enable POS to be set up very fast and also online payments for stores. In my past I was involved in a business where we needed to integrate with POS terminals at restaurants and it was very hard as so many different softwares, most old and the developer was normally retired, or dead with no code or system notes so very hard to integrate. I think that this was one of the thing that probably killed Cake app (this is not the one I was invested in).
I am integrating Square on one of my companies and it will make it very easy for us to API in and also be very easy for our customers at retail locations as it really is pretty much plug and play.
Other thing both theses have done is bring in other services and rev share so start ups can do a incorporation, basic legal docs and a few other things. Have now seen CITI are moving to partnering up and rev sharing with other service providers to provide a one stop shop so the reve share with lower margin but higher customer retention and lower CAC is gaining steam. Think Stripe and Square are way ahead though in that area

Venmo had bad rep a couple years ago as they were direct access to individual bank accounts and lots of disputes. I assume the Paypal acquisition helped recover the brand although I am still not sure that outside of the US people would be so keen to give open access to their bank account via something like Venmo. They were very strong though of course in US and assume they still are.
Once your brand becomes a verb you know you are onto something…

Toast: 1300 (50%) Yelp: 1000 (17%) Eventbrite: 500 (45%) Compass: 375 (15%) Lever: 109 (40%) Zume: 200 (67%) Monzo: 165 (?) Neon: 70 (10%) OneTrust 150 (10%) Zoox: 100 (10%) Domo: 90 (10%) Mejuri: 36 (15%) The list goes on: layoffs.fyi/tracker/